Here’s 6 Things To Watch for in The Upcoming Rematch Between Trump and Biden

6 Questions That Must Be Asked Ahead of a Rematch

After the Georgia primaries, it's now confirmed that a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is scheduled for 2024. A rather uneventful presidential primary season came to a close on Tuesday night when both men formally secured their party's nominations. It appears that Trump has a slight but consistent advantage over Biden in public polling as the actual contest gets underway, per HuffPost. However, the race has nearly eight months to change. Each of these six inquiries is worthwhile observing before the rematch takes place.

1. Will They Debate Each Other?

Four 2024 presidential debates—in San Marcos, Texas; Petersburg, Virginia; Salt Lake City, Utah; and Easton, Pennsylvania—as well as a vice presidential debate, have already been set by the Commission on Presidential Debates, per CNN. But since Trump made a point of missing all of the planned Republican primary debates, much to the dismay of his competitors in the party, it may seem like he won't debate Biden too. However, Trump has now said that he is prepared to debate Biden "anytime, anywhere, anyplace" to demonstrate his superior intelligence. It's unclear at this point if Biden will concur. During a March 8 news conference, Biden was asked if he would take on Trump in a debate. He said, "It depends on his behavior." During the first debate in 2020, Trump often interrupted both Biden and Fox News moderator Chris Wallace, causing a lot of cross-talk. "Will you shut up, man?" Biden, exasperated, had to once ask Trump. In comparison, the second debate was more polite.

2. Will Trump Be on Trial?

March 25 is the day of his trial in Manhattan, New York, on allegations about his hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels. However, those are the least significant accusations against Trump. The Supreme Court is currently debating Trump's argument that he is immune from prosecution for actions he took while president. As a result, the two federal cases against him—one in Florida regarding his handling of classified documents and the other in Washington, D.C., involving his involvement in the Jan. 6 uprising—are currently on hold. These cases could begin and potentially conclude before the election on November 5th, depending on the court's decision-making process and speed. It's doubtful that the last case—a Georgia RICO indictment—will go to trial until November.

3. What States Will Be At The Center Of The Race?

The 2020 presidential election and the list of swing states are similar in that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada are in the middle of the political map. Despite its previous strong Republican tendency, Florida is not considered a battleground state in this election year. Neither is Texas, which has shifted somewhat in favor of Democrats but not enough to be considered competitive. Similar to 2016 and 2020, the Democratic nominee would only need to win the "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to secure the 270 electoral votes required for victory. Political operatives from both parties now claim that Biden seems stronger in all three of these regions than he does in the Sun Belt states, which are more diverse.

4. Who Will Trump's VP Pick Be? 

The decision of Trump's running partner is among the most crucial ones he will make for his campaign. Trump's concerns about winning over Black voters and suburban women will be greater this time. The lone Black Republican senator from South Carolina, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), quickly endorsed Trump after calling off his presidential campaign in November. Trump is also evaluating J.D. Vance of Ohio, a former Trump critic who is now an enthusiast, and Katie Britt of Alabama, who delivered a memorable, exaggerated GOP reply to the State of the Union. Another House member on Trump's list is Rep. Elise Stefanik, who was a former opponent of Trump, but later cemented her allegiance to him by endorsing his 2024 campaign. Vivek Ramaswamy and Kari Lake, two MAGA stars, are also being considered by Trump. Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur, too campaigned against Trump before withdrawing and supporting him, much like Scott did.

5. Can Biden Reorganize His Old Voter Base?

Biden's approval ratings are still low, and a large portion of the anger is coming from demographics he won over in the 2020 election—namely, Black and young voters. Regaining these votes, then, will be crucial to Biden's return. However, their fears are different: Some feel enraged at Biden's backing of Israel's war against Gaza; others are merely upset by political corruption or inflation; still others believe he hasn't fulfilled his pledges made during the 2020 campaign. But there's a commonality: they all appear to be disengaged from the conventional means of disseminating political information. These voters hardly watch network television and don't read newspapers frequently. Finding strategies to connect with these voters will be Biden's task since there won't be a magic bullet as social media continues to stratify.

6. What About Trump's Black Voter Gains?

Exit polls show that Trump received just 8% of the Black vote in 2016 and 12% of the Black vote in 2020. However, according to a poll conducted earlier this month by the New York Times and Siena College, 23% of prospective Black voters said they would choose Trump over Biden if the election were held "today." It's uncertain if Trump will maintain his comparatively high polling among Black voters. A concerted attempt has been made by the Biden team to sway those Black voters who were leaning toward Trump. Biden likened the fight against those who deny the 2020 election to the struggle against the racist Jim Crow regime in the South back in January. The campaign advertised Biden's historically diverse cabinet on Black radio stations in swing states during Black History Month. However, since Trump only has to receive less than 25% of the Black vote to cause Biden any trouble, this might pose a serious threat to him. It could be sufficient to reduce Biden's lead in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan for the former president to win those states.