Enten based his analysis off of live interview national polls that were taken since the Democratic and Republican conventions, all of which meet CNN’s reporting standards. Although the analyst noted that Trump is leading Biden by an average of approximately 21 points among whites without a college degree, he highlighted that final pre-election polls in 2016 showed the president leading Hillary Clinton by significantly higher — 30 points.
“Keep in mind, we’re making an apples-to-apples comparison here. Even if the polls are off by a similar margin as they were in 2016, this exercise takes that into account. There’s real movement going on here among Whites without a college degree.”
The crucial voting bloc is found mostly in the Rust Belt battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which helped carry Trump to victory in 2016. Notably, Enten claimed that recent polling shows Biden ahead of Trump in these regions by 5 to 7 percent — a significant improvement from the former secretary of state’s final standing in these areas.
“We see similar big shifts toward Biden compared to Clinton in other key states in the region: Iowa and Ohio. Biden’s about even in Iowa and slightly ahead in Ohio, despite Clinton losing them by 9 and 8 points respectively. Again, both states have a lot of White voters without a college degree,” he wrote.
Politico notably reported that Caucasians cast over 80 percent of the vote in the last general election in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota.
According to the CNN analyst, Trump is planning to use the forthcoming debates to gain back some of the crucial demographic that he lost and prevent Biden from securing the presidency by channeling his newfound support.
Per Politico, Trump may also gain ground with this crucial group thanks to the recent focus on replacing the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg by reigniting the culture wars and reminding them of why they supported him in 2016.
Another demographic Trump appears to be losing ground with is religious Americans. As The Inquisitr reported, Vote Common Good, an American non-profit, found that Trump has lost an average of 11 percent support from evangelical and Catholic voters to Biden in Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
According to David Brody, the chief political analyst at the Christian Broadcasting Network, Trump requires at least 81 percent support from evangelicals to win on Election Day.