Amid speculation that Donald Trump may leave the presidential race, a Trafalgar Group poll released on Monday shows the president leading Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 1 percent in Wisconsin. As reported by Breitbart, Trump earned the support of 46 percent of registered voters surveyed while Biden gained the support of 45 percent. Notably, this lead is within the poll’s 3 percent margin of error.
As noted by Breitbart, the Trafalgar Group poll differs in its methodology from four recent polls — the Marquette University Poll, the New York Times/Siena University Poll, and the Fox News Poll — that put Biden in the lead. Specifically, the Trafalgar survey has a larger sample size and lower margin of error, and it focused on likely general election voters, which the publication claims are a more accurate gauge of voting behavior.
“The most recent polls in Wisconsin prior to the release of Monday’s Trafalgar Group poll have shown Biden with a significant lead, as the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls for the state indicates,” Breitbart reported, referring to the page that shows Trump behind Biden by over 6 percent.
The report pointed to a Politico article that noted Trafalgar Group was one of the few firms that showed the president ahead.
“Few, it seems, paid attention to the surveys from the Trafalgar Group – a Georgia-based consulting firm that, on its website, celebrates the time RealClearPolitics picked up one of its Florida primary polls – showing Trump ahead.”
Notably, the group showed Trump ahead in Florida, Michigan, and Georgia one day before the 2016 election.
Per Newsmax, Georgia-based political strategist Robert Cahaly, the owner behind Trafalgar Group, claimed that Michigan is a closer race than other polls are showing. Although the Michigan-based EPIC-MRA recently released a survey that put Biden ahead of Trump by 16 percentage points, Cahaly pointed to a Trafalgar survey that found Biden ahead of the president by less than 1 percent.
According to Cahaly, his firm’s surveys continue to suggest that there may be “shy” or “reluctant” Trump voters who do not publicly reveal their preferences.
Regardless, Trump’s poor polling showing has reportedly lead to speculation that he will drop from the race before November. As The Inquisitr reported, Fox News host Trace Gallagher touched on the possibility on Monday, although former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu pushed back and argued this would not happen. In addition, another report suggested that Biden’s strategy of staying out of the spotlight is working. The report pointed to Trump’s polling position and Biden’s May fundraising haul, which topped the president’s earnings.