As Clinton’s lead fades, the latest Michigan polls for 2016 are coming into focus in a state where the Democratic candidate must win in order to cement her victory on Tuesday.
Clinton has remained confident, at the very least, that not a single recent poll shows Trump winning in Michigan. In fact, her advantage falls just outside of the margin or error in all three of the latest head-to-heads. The most recent data, from Public Policy Polling, shows Clinton with a lead of 6 percentage points over her opponent, with a margin of error just half of that number.
Released at the end of last week, the poll boasted a sample size of 957 likely voters. Although the pollster does lean left, it has the highest FiveThiryEight accuracy rating of those who surveyed Michigan voters.
Another one of the Michigan polls, conducted by Fox 2 Detroit and Mitchell, shows a five percentage-point lead for Clinton, also well outside of its margin of error. While it does have a sample of more than 1,000 likely voters, the pollster does have a comparatively low accuracy rating of “D” from FiveThirtyEight.
Detroit Free Press also added to the polls with their own survey of Michigan voters. Registering the lowest advantage for Clinton, it gives her just four percentage points ahead of Trump, matching with the questionnaire’s margin of error. It is the oldest and smallest of the comparisons mentioned in this article.
It’s also worth noting that while Republican pollsters like Remington and Trafalgar have carried out last-minute polls in states like North Carolina and Florida, they have not done so in Michigan up to this point.
Still, that does not mean that all of Trump’s supporters have given up on Michigan after looking at the polls. Sarah Palin campaigned for him in the state over the weekend, remarking that she was not deterred by the numbers she was seeing.
“Polls are for strippers and cross-country skiiers!”
The Clinton team certainly hasn’t taken its lead in Michigan for granted either. In the Democratic primaries, the nominee lost the state in a massive upset to Bernie Sanders after weeks of polling ahead of him. Campaign manager Robby Mook told CNN that they would be paying special attention to the state after polls showed a shrinking advantage for Hillary, even adding a last-minute stop for the candidate in Grand Rapids on Monday.
“The numbers there have tightened. We’re taking that seriously… [but] from what I have seen, this is a natural tightening of the race. If anything, in the last few days, we have seen things improve a little bit.”
Those concerns are well rooted in reality. Trump has consolidated support in Rust Belt states like Michigan where some working class voters see him as the answer to their economic woes. Ohio polls, for example, show the state going red despite having voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.
— Andrew Ross (@PTreasonReport) November 5, 2016
Nationally in the electoral college, Clinton is currently holding a slight lead in most comparisons, but she could be unseated if Trump manages to pick up all of the swing states — as well as a few where her lead is less than commanding. Of these battlegrounds, Florida polls are currently the most closely watched as the state holds 29 electoral votes; yet even a relatively small state like Nevada could potentially influence the outcome of the election. Michigan, with 16 electoral votes, will also figure heavily into the final outcome.
— 538 politics (@538politics) November 7, 2016
In the national popular vote, Clinton did see a slight resurgence in the polls that were released the day before the election. With a massive 30, 145 likely voters, NBCNews/SM gave her an advantage of 7 percentage points over Trump. Of the seven polls completed the day before the election, she only lost to Trump in one conducted by LATimes/USC Tracking, where Trump bested her by 5 percentage points, just outside of the data’s margin or error.
Do you think the latest Michigan polls foretell a 2016 upset for Hillary Clinton there?
[Featured Image via Drew Angerer/Getty Images]