Although speculation continues to swirl around the possibility of “shy” Donald Trump voters causing support for the president in recent polls to be underestimated, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten penned a piece Sunday in which he argued that they are “likely a myth.”
As the journalist noted, a recent Monmouth University poll from Iowa continues the trend of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden outperforming Trump to a higher degree than Hillary Clinton, who lost to the real estate mogul in a 2016 upset that wasn’t predicted by most polls.
“This poll reinforces that there is little sign of a vast supply of hidden Trump support in the electorate. That said, it is possible, especially at this early juncture, that Trump outperforms his current polling and goes on to win.”
In particular, Enten noted that Monmouth University surveys factor in the variable of party registration, which is measured by various state government agencies. The journalist highlighted that the percentage of registered Democrats in the Monmouth poll aligns with the number reported by the Iowa Secretary of State and claims this pattern is similar to the pollster’s recent survey of Pennsylvania.
“Like in Iowa, they found Biden vastly outperforming Clinton’s baseline by more than 5 points in the state,” he wrote. “The same holds true if you look at other pollsters like the University of New Hampshire and the New York Times/Siena College polls. Both weight by party registration, and both have given Biden substantial advantages in key swing states.”
Given that Republicans are allegedly no less likely to respond to pollsters than Democrats, the CNN analyst argued that recent data suggests Biden’s consistent lead over Trump is not due to the president’s voters going undocumented by pollsters.
Nevertheless, Enten suggested recent samples do have one weakness that could provide promise for increased Trump support. Notably, he highlighted that most surveys are conducted online or in an automated fashion without the use of live interviews to test the truthfulness of the responses, which could affect the integrity of the results.
As The Inquisitr reported, a recent Democracy Institute study put Trump ahead of Biden by 2 points nationally. Interestingly, the survey found that shy Trump voters have increased by five percent since the last of the pollster’s surveys, which suggests the demographic could be growing ahead of November’s election. Nevertheless, New York Magazine previously echoed the recent CNN analysis and claimed there is no evidence the elusive demographic exists. The publication also noted the polling methodology used in 2016 has since been corrected via weighed results, suggesting Biden’s lead cannot be brushed off as the result of an invisible voting group.