Donald Trump & Joe Biden Tied In Florida In New Trafalgar Group Poll
A new survey from Trafalgar Group shows Donald Trump tied with Joe Biden in the battleground state of Florida, Breitbart reported.
According to the survey, which sampled 1,072 likely general election voters from June 29 to July 2, both Trump and Biden have 45.9 percent support. Another 5.4 percent of voters surveyed selected a third-party candidate, and 2.8 percent were undecided.
Per Newsmax, Florida is typically “one of the largest battleground states” in the United States’ presidential elections.
“It is also the new home state for President Trump, who has left New York City’s Trump Tower for Florida for this election cycle, calling his estate at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach his home,” the report reads.
As noted by Breitbart, the survey’s respondents were comprised of 54.4 percent female voters and 45.6 percent male voters. Notably, the publication claims that Biden tends to do better with female voters than Trump.
According to Newsmax, other recent surveys from the Trafalgar Group showed Biden and Trump in close races. In Wisconsin, the poll recently put Trump in a slim lead, with 45.5 percent support to Biden’s 44.6 percent. Conversely, the group showed Biden narrowly leading in Michigan with 46.2 percent support to Trump’s 45.3 percent.
The Trafalgar Group differs from other polling organizations in its uses of likely voters, which is allegedly a demographic that more accurately reflects voting behavior compared to registered voters. It was one of the few firms that showed Trump in the lead one day before the 2016 general election when he beat Hillary Clinton.
The owner of Trafalgar Group, Georgia-based political strategist Robert Cahaly, recently claimed that shy and reluctant Trump voters might not be voicing their opinion in recent surveys.
Outside of Trafalgar group, a recent Tampa Bay Times analysis of statewide polling data put Biden with 47.4 percent support and Trump at 42.5 percent. According to the publication, Trump must secure Florida to have a chance of winning in November.
“If the polls prove true and if Trump cannot make up that ground in the next four months, Biden is likely to become the next president. While Biden can afford to lose Florida’s 29 electoral college votes, Trump has virtually no path to win the White House without carrying the Sunshine State.”
The publication noted that some polls in March and April put Trump ahead of Biden in Florida. However, after the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, the president’s net approval in the state has reportedly dropped by double digits.
According to Trump’s campaign, the recent polls are “flawed and non-predictive,” and the president is on track to win Florida as he did in 2016.
