2020 Iowa Caucus Prediction: One Very Unlikely Candidate May Be Having A Late Surge
With just one day before the start of the 2020 Democratic primary, predictions for who will win the Iowa caucus are getting increasingly murky, with one new report indicating that a very unlikely candidate could make a late run for the state.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden have led the majority of polls from the critical early state, which will hold caucuses on Monday. But that could be changing, with the polling analysis and aggregator FiveThirtyEight reporting that the most recent polls show one candidate on a sharp rise — Senator Amy Klobuchar.
Though she has lingered near the bottom of the pack for much of the lead-up to the start of the primary, Klobuchar has been rising quickly in the most recent polls and moved to within striking distance of the leaders. The site noted that her chances of winning in Iowa have tripled in the last few weeks, rising from a 3 percent chance of winning up to 10 percent.
The report cautioned against putting too much stock in the late surge, though it noted that her upward movement in the race is clear.
“That’s quite the last-minute surge, considering she was polling at 6 percent just a little over a week ago, but she’s also still several points behind Sen. Bernie Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, so don’t read too much into this yet,” the site noted.
But the report went on to add that Iowa has been known for its “last minute surprises,” which included Barack Obama beating long odds to snag a win in 2008 and propel him to the Democratic nomination.
Klobuchar could be siphoning some support from Warren and Buttigieg, who had previously been near the top of the pack but fell off by several points in the most recent Iowa polling.
There may be even more uncertainty going in to the 2020 Iowa caucus thanks to a polling mishap. The influential Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, which is considered to be the most accurate for the Iowa caucus, had to be scrapped at the last minute after a polling error left candidates out of questioning for poll takers. As Politico reported, the poll from the Des Moines-based Selzer & Co. was set to be released on Saturday night with an hour-long special on CNN to announce results, but it was pulled and will not be released before Monday’s caucuses.
