December 17, 2019
Donald Trump Leads His Democratic Rivals In 2020 Election, According To New Poll

Donald Trump would beat any of his top 2020 Democratic opponents in hypothetical matchups against each of them, according to a new USA Today/Suffolk University poll. The poll numbers seem to indicate that the impeachment controversy surrounding the 45th president has done little to rattle his core supporters.

As USA Today reports, the new poll, conducted even as the House of Representatives was preparing its articles of impeachment against Trump, shows that Trump would defeat Joe Biden by three percentage points in a hypothetical contest. Against Bernie Sanders, Trump would win by five points; against Elizabeth Warren, he is ahead eight points. Trump would fare even better against Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg, against whom he would win by 10 points and nine points, respectively.

North Carolina truck driver Jason Mayo, a poll respondent who identified as Republican and likely to vote in 2020, said that there's no need to mess with a good thing.

"My 401(k) is doing better than it's ever done. That's the truth," Mayo said, also predicting that Trump would survive the impeachment process "hands down" and win re-election in 2020.

It was a belief echoed by another North Carolina likely Republican voter, Amy Locklear.

"I like Donald Trump's attitude. If you say you're going to do something, he'll do it. He actually gets it done," she said.

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 16: (L-R) Governor of South Dakota Kristi Noem and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence listen as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting about the Governors Initiative on Regulatory Innovation in the Cabinet Room of the White House on December 16, 2019 in Washington, DC. President Trump encouraged further action to reduce unnecessary regulations that the administration says are holding back American businesses. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Getty Images | Drew Angerer

However, not all likely voters see things that way.

Elmer Ciers, a Cincinnati voter who's likely to vote Democrat, says he doesn't care who the Democrats nominate, as long as that person beats Trump. In a follow-up interview after being polled, he noted that he was "scared for the future and our legacy" on climate change and other issues after the first three years of Donald Trump in office.

Arizona voter Kathleen McMinn, who is likely to vote Democrat, is backing Pete Buttigieg. The 37-year-old South Bend, Indiana, mayor has the advantage of youth over Joe Biden, who, at 77, is "too old," she says.

In what could potentially muddle things even further as the 2020 election approaches, a hypothetical third party candidate is drawing between 11-15 percent in head-to-head matchups. The likelihood of a third-party candidate winning the election is astronomically small. However, voters who would otherwise choose Trump or his Democratic opponent, but instead vote third party, could affect the final outcome, says David Paleologos, director of Suffolk's Political Research Center.

"Every ballot has third-party candidates who receive critical votes. When you give voters more than two options for president, you see how it impacts the major two parties," he says.