Midterms A Referendum On Donald Trump, Leaked RNC Poll Suggests

'Research indicates the determining factor in this election is how voters feel about President Trump.'

Donald Trump appears reflective.
Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

'Research indicates the determining factor in this election is how voters feel about President Trump.'

This fall’s midterms are essentially a referendum on President Donald Trump — at least that’s what a private Republican Party poll leaked to Bloomberg suggests.

Public Opinion Strategies, the polling firm that conducted the survey last month, concludes the following.

“For the most part, this election isn’t about the condition of the economy, the number of jobs that have been created, the trade deals or negotiations with foreign countries. Rather, the research indicates the determining factor in this election is how voters feel about President Trump.”

Public Opinion Strategies’ conclusion — to an extent at least — echoes President Donald Trump’s views as expressed in an interview published today by the Associated Press.

Discussing the midterms, Trump observed that they are “very tough for anybody the opposite of president,” adding that he thinks he is “helping” Republicans across the United States.

Historically, midterm elections are bad news for sitting presidents, given that their parties tend to lose ground. In the history of the United States, only Franklin Delano Roosevelt — in the midst of the Great Depression — and George W. Bush — following the September 11 attacks — have managed to come out on top, with their parties winning House and Senate seats, according to Politifact.

Furthermore, according to a Brookings Institution study, the president’s party lost an average of 33 House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections.

The leaked RNC poll suggests that the Republican Party is well aware of the fact that the incumbent parties tend to lose in the midterms, but for Donald Trump — who has the lowest approval rating for a president heading into his first midterms since Harry S. Truman — impeachment is a serious threat.

As the Inquisitr reported last week, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that Donald Trump’s approval rating has increased by five percentage points since August. This doesn’t mean that Trump is safe. Trump’s approval rating is still low, and perhaps indicative of a potential Democratic takeover of both chambers.

Aware of this fact, President Donald Trump is campaigning — holding rallies, starting Twitter feuds, and endorsing Republican candidates across the United States.

Hesitant to talk impeachment until after midterms, the Democratic Party is likely to bring up the prospect of removing President Trump from office if the so called “blue wave” materializes, according to former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon.

As Business Insider reports, Bannon openly urged Republicans to vote for right-wing candidates, saying that “you may not like the guy, he may not like Trump. It doesn’t matter. That fight is past us.”

Bannon’s observations are not altogether unfounded either, given that The New York Times reported in August — citing an internal DNC memo — that the Democratic Party is purposefully avoiding any and all talks of impeachment until after midterms. This appears to be an effort to avoid galvanizing Trump’s base.