A distinguished history professor at American University is doubling down on his previous prediction that Donald Trump will win the election. Allen J. Lichtman has accurately predicted the last 30 years of presidential elections with a unique prediction model. Lichtman’s recent comments preceded the FBI announcing they will be re-opening their investigation in Hillary Clinton’s emails just 11 days before the election.
Lichtman doesn’t reach a conclusion by studying trends in the polling. His “Keys to the White House” is a prediction system developed from studying American presidential elections from 1860 to 1980. It was first tested in the 1984 presidential election by predicting Ronald Reagan would win, and it hasn’t been wrong since.
“The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of ‘true’ always favors the re-election of the party holding the White House,” Lichtman told the Washington Post. “If six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years.”
The methodology is laid out in his book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House. According to the test, the Democratic Party cannot win the election. Lichtman said in Septemeber that according to his model, Trump would win.
“Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory,” Lichtman said. “Remember, six keys and you’re out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.”