Donald Trump has gained ground on rival Hillary Clinton in the battleground or swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, and the two candidates are tied in Ohio.
[see updates below]
That is the conclusion of new polling data from Quinnipiac University about these important states that could go either way, Republican or Democrat, in the November 2016 presidential election. “Clinton loses ground on almost every measure from a June 21 survey by….Quinnipiac University.”
Why are these states so significant? “Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida are generally considered the three most important swing states for winning the electoral college. No candidate has won the presidency without winning at least two of them since 1960,” Fortune detailed.
The presumptive GOP presidential nominee, Trump leads his Democrat opponent in Florida by a margin of 42 percent to 39 percent (Clinton previously enjoyed an eight-point lead). In Pennsylvania, Trump has moved ahead 43 to 41 percent. Each candidate gets 41 percent of the vote in Ohio, assuming the polling data is accurate. Trump also supposedly increases his lead in this particular survey when third-party candidates are in the mix.
The New York real estate mogul is expected to name his vice presidential running mate later this week in the run-up to the GOP convention in Cleveland. “Donald Trump enters the Republican Convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton’s lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio,” a Qunnipiac official remarked about the findings.
Hillary Clinton is in a tight race with Donald Trump in swing states, new polls show https://t.co/C0EtZO8sCS— TIME.com (@TIME) July 13, 2016
“It’s possible the results of the FBI investigation into Clinton’s private email server dating back to her service as secretary of state — FBI Director James Comey called Clinton and her staff ‘extremely careless,’ even as he said the government shouldn’t press charges because there wasn’t evidence of criminal intent — are driving Clinton’s poll numbers down leading into the conventions, typically a critical time for campaigns,” Politico explained about the favorable Donald Trump polls.
While Clinton has encountered difficulties insofar as the private server/email probe is concerned, Donald Trump has also received ongoing negative media coverage for his abrasive rhetoric, plus any campaign mishap often tends to be portrayed in the worst possible light.
In other polls, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found a close contest in Ohio and Iowa, but a nine-point margin for Clinton in Pennsylvania based on registered, rather than likely, voters. Monmouth University determined this week that Trump has a two-point lead over Clinton in Iowa, but is benefiting from a significant push from younger voters by 51 percent to 32 percent.
Trump and Clinton are neck-and-neck in two states, polls find; Theresa May becomes U.K. prime minister; more news: https://t.co/2hj8INYzJh— Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) July 13, 2016
An automated poll compiled by JMC Analytics claims that Trump has the edge over Clinton in Florida by 47 percent to 42 percent, including a 49 percent to 35 percent advantage with Hispanics.
Another automatic telephone poll from One America News Network and Gravis Marketing in Florida reveals a 49 percent to 45 percent boost for Trump over Clinton if a third-party option is included.
Each of these polls have a so-called margin of error of about 3 to 4 percent. That being said, it is an open question as to whether in the current highly politicized/polarized environment, a voter would share his or her true feelings with a stranger on the telephone, to a “machine,” or even (to a lesser extent) via the internet.
It’s worth mentioning, moreover, that pollsters have been way off in some recent elections, such as Brexit in the U.K., so as the cliché goes, the only poll that matters is on Election Day in November. Information consumers should also be aware that some polling firms have an ideological and/or financial stake in arriving at a particular outcome.
Since a candidate wins the presidency via state-by-state contests and the Electoral College, national polling data may or may not be significant. The Real Clear Politics national average currently gives Hillary Clinton a 3.9 percent overall lead, however.
“Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has withered to 3 percentage points, signaling their battle for the White House has become too close to call heading into the two major-party national conventions, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll. Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, now leads Trump by 42 to 39 percent in a head-to-head matchup,” TheState added.
Pro-Trump websites such as Gateway Pundit and Zero Hedge have suggested that some polling data is skewed in Hillary Clinton’s favor by oversampling Democrats.
While former Clinton rival Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator, finally endorsed Hillary this week, common ground exists between Trump and Sanders to some degree in that they both oppose international trade treaties backed by both political parties — such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership — that often result in jobs going overseas. They both denounced the Wall Street and lobbyist cash flowing into Hillary Clinton’s campaign (and the primary campaigns of other Republicans), as well as her vote for the Iraq War. Both men have described the party nomination process as rigged. As such, Trump may be able to pick up some portion of the Bernie-or-bust electorate.
In April, one Democrat strategist argued that 40 percent of the Sanders vote could gravitate to Trump in part because of the trade issue.
Dilbert creator Scott Adams, who has consistently predicted a landslide victory for “master persuader” Donald Trump, insists on his blog that Trump can win the White House by avoiding making crazy or racist-sounding remarks in the next four months.
“Clinton’s task of proving she is not crooked is literally impossible at this stage. But Trump’s task of NOT being outrageous for a few months is somewhat easy. He’s already doing it, and I don’t see him breaking a sweat…In other words, Trump didn’t do anything outrageous for a few weeks. That’s all he needs to do from here on out – more nothing – to win in a landslide. The ‘Crooked Hillary’ harpoon he landed a few months ago is bleeding her out. Trump’s glide path to victory involves picking his cabinet and acting serious for a few months.”
Although Hillary Clinton has advantages in terms of being perceived as better prepared for the presidency and other qualities, Donald Trump is regarded as more honest and trustworthy, the Quinnipiac voter poll enumerated.
[Photo by Michael Conroy/AP Images]
Updates: Rasmussen’s weekly presidential survey shows that Donald Trump has jumped ahead of Hillary Clinton by 44 percent to 37 percent on a national basis. Last week, he lead by only two points. “This week’s findings represent Trump’s highest level of support in surveys since last October and show Clinton continuing to lose ground.” A new New York Times/CBS national poll indicates that the two candidates are tied at 40 percent and that Clinton’s previous six-point lead from last month has faded.