World Series odds for 2016 are down to just nine teams viable in the title chase. These latest World Series odds have been presented in a report from Baseball Prospectus, with the site stating that only nine teams have a real chance to win the Fall Classic. While fans of the other 21 franchises might disagree, the expected winning percentages of all 32 clubs tell a succinct story. So which teams made the cut and which ones are left scrambling to add pieces before the MLB trade deadline in July?
The Chicago Cubs receive the best 2016 World Series odds, with the team getting a 17.3 percent chance of breaking its title drought. That’s great news for Cubs fans, but the month of October is still in the distance. In the updated MLB standings, the Cubs have a 32-14 record and a lead of four-and-a-half games over the second-place Pittsburgh Pirates (28-19). The team is also four games ahead of the San Francisco Giants (30-20) for the best record in the National League.
As for those Pirates, Baseball Prospectus has the World Series odds for the team at just 1.7 percent. That’s extremely low for a team that has been playing so well, but with an expected winning percentage of just .508 so far, the team might not be able to keep up with the Cubs. The Pirates are predicted to finish the season with an 85-77 record, far behind the 98-64 projected record for the Cubs.
The rest of the top teams from the National League include the New York Mets with an 8.4 percent chance, the Los Angeles Dodgers at 8.0 percent, the Washington Nationals at 7.9 percent, and the San Francisco Giants at 4.5 percent. In comparison, the Chicago Cubs have received World Series odds that are nearly twice as good as the rest of the field in the NL.
The American League has three teams bunched at the top with good 2016 World Series odds. They are the Cleveland Indians at 11.5 percent, the Boston Red Sox at 10.9 percent, and the Seattle Mariners at 10.2 percent. The Indians have the highest percentage, despite not even leading one of the three divisions. At 25-21, the Indians are half a game behind the Chicago White Sox (27-22) in the AL Central. The White Sox, though, received just a 5.0 percent chance of winning the title.
A lot of math goes into these projections, which ends up garnering Baseball Prospectus a lot of accolades for the posted World Series odds. These are just odds, though, and no guarantee that the teams are actually going to win the 2016 World Series. Heading into the 2015 MLB season, the teams projected to be the most likely opponents in the World Series were the Seattle Mariners and Washington Nationals. Neither team even made it to the playoffs.
The teams with the highest likelihood of making the 2016 MLB Playoffs are the Chicago Cubs (98.0 percent), Boston Red Sox (84.6 percent), Washington Nationals (82.8 percent), and the Seattle Mariners (82.0 percent). As for the teams receiving the worst marks, the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves have been given no shot at making the postseason. The Minnesota Twins come in as the worst team in the American League, receiving a 0.1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
There is a lot of baseball left to be played in the 2016 MLB season, but the contenders are starting to separate from the rest of the teams. While there could still be shifts like the Texas Rangers catching the Seattle Mariners in the American League West, or the Kansas City Royals finding a way to win the AL Central again, several teams are really distancing themselves from the group. As the 2016 World Series odds indicate (again), the Chicago Cubs are the clear favorites to finally raise another championship banner at Wrigley Field.
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