GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump could win 25 percent of the black vote in the November 2016 general election, assuming he’s the party nominee, if new polling data is accurate.
The same poll suggests that Trump would defeat Democrat counterpart Hillary Clinton in the November 2016 general election (if she becomes the nominee of her party) by 45 to 40 percent. Trump would also defeat Clinton rivals Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden by similar margins, the Labor Day weekend Survey USA findings suggests.
It’s a long way to November 2016, and things could and undoubtedly will change during the course of the long, hard-fought campaign, but Republicans in a presidential contest ordinarily only draw about five to 10 percent of the African-American vote, a cohort that accordingly usually votes overwhelmingly for Democrats.
If Survey USA numbers-crunching proves accurate at crunch time, however, and the Democrats lose their traditional sway over the black vote, The Donald is well on his way to moving from the Trump Tower in Manhattan to the White House in Washington, D.C.
On Thursday, Trump promised not to run as a third-party candidate if he is unsuccessful in securing the Republican nomination.
In a head-to-head matchup with Clinton, Survey USA claims that Trump receives 25 percent of the black vote and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote. Against Sanders, the real estate mogul and ex-reality TV star gets 26 percent of the black vote and 29 percent of the Hispanic vote. If Joe Biden is the opponent, Trump receives 23 percent of the black vote and 28 percent of the Hispanic vote.
If the Survey USA sample of 1,000 U.S. adults is representative, perhaps significant segments of all demographic groups find Trump’s vow to bring jobs back to America appealing. It would also run counter to the media narrative that various ethnic groups in America always vote in a monolithic or bloc pattern.
Separately, a YouGov poll of the same number of adults indicates that most Americans (two out of three) go along with Trump’s idea of building a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, including 49 percent of Hispanic respondents and 44 percent of Democrats. Some 55 percent of African-Americans favor the wall based on the same data.
In a recent column called “America is so in play,” Wall Street Journal writer Peggy Noonan opined that from her travels around the country and the people she’s talked to, “Mr. Trump’s support is not limited to Republicans, not by any means,” a development the political professionals fail to understand. In a reference to a Dominican immigrant friend, Noonan added that “Immigrants, he said, don’t like illegal immigration, and they’re with Mr. Trump on anchor babies.”
According to a Gallup poll released on September 4, many of the “establishment” pundits on the left and the right as alluded to above continue to be wrong in their assessment of the Donald Trump for president campaign, given a 16-point increase in popularity with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
“Despite some political analysts’ expectations that Trump’s bombastic style and controversial statements could begin to weaken his standing among Republicans, the businessman and TV personality’s net favorable score has actually jumped over the past two weeks, and he is now in a much stronger position image-wise than in mid-July. From a broad perspective, these data show no signs yet of an overall backlash among rank-and-file Republicans to his campaign, style or issue positions.”
In addition to Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and Ted Cruz also improved their image with potential voters, Gallup noted.
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