INQUISITR.COM / News & Politics

Elections 2016 Swing State Polls: Hillary Clinton Working For Swing State Sweep, Donald Trump’s Path To 270 More Difficult

By Christine Beswick
Published on: 05:48 PST, Oct 23, 2016

National polls in Elections 2016 show Hillary Clinton has maintained a week-long 6.2-point lead on Donald Trump, according to the New York Times polls tracker, a lead that is widening. However, with 16 days until the presidential election, the election is now a state-by-state contest. The candidate that can reach 270 electoral college votes on election day will become the next President of the United States.

TheNew York Times reports today that Hillary Clinton is preparing for a swing state sweep. Swing states, also known as battleground states, are the states where the two candidates are currently less than 5 points apart in the polls as defined by Financial Times. These are the states that ultimately will decide the election.

Each candidate at present has a block of states that they have locked in, and are expected to win come election day. For Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, she has locked in 13 states with a total of 172 electoral college votes and has 10 additional states that are leaning Democratic today and offering a total of 90 electoral college votes, reports Financial Times.

This gives Hillary Clinton a significant advantage when it comes to a fight for the swing states, as this puts her at 262 electoral college votes today if all states that lean Democrat vote Hillary Clinton. Real Clear Politics offers a different perspective, showing Florida as leaning Clinton and putting her over the 300 electoral college vote count.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, has 15 states locked into the red column, giving him a total of a solid 93 electoral college votes come Election Day, using Financial Times data. In the leaning red column, an additional six states, including Utah, would give him 33 more electoral college votes if the election happened today and matched these numbers of the Financial Times.

But Real Clear Politics has taken some of these states out of Trump’s leaning red column, and has put them in the toss-up column, including Utah and Arizona. Many pundits believe Utah will go to Independent candidate Evan McMullin.

For Donald Trump, the path to 270 will be much more difficult. He will essentially need to win almost every swing state if these numbers are accurate and reflect actual voting trends if the election happened today.

The state of Ohio is the one state that both candidates are in a dead heat. President Obama won this state in 2012, but Hillary Clinton is having a much more difficult time here than President Obama. The New York Times reports that Hillary Clinton has an extensive ground campaign in Ohio, an advantage over Donald Trump.

It is the strategy that won the state for President Obama in 2012, whether that is enough for Hillary Clinton will be a result discovered only on election day. The New York Times reports that requests for early ballots for Democrats in Ohio are down by 22.3 percent in Cuyahoga County and 12.7 percent in Franklin County than they were in 2012.

The Financial Times reports that the candidates are in a virtual dead-heat in Ohio with Donald Trump up by 0.6 percent in polls. An Alliances poll has Donald Trump ahead by 3 points in Ohio. Hillary Clinton still can win the Oval Office without Ohio, Donald Trump needs it to win, but he needs Ohio, and many other swing states as well, which is his biggest challenge for him at this stage of the race.

As the Inquisitr previously reported, requests for early ballots in other swing states from both women and registered Democrats are up for Hillary Clinton and suggest she has a strong start in other swing states. Center for Politics has an electoral map that is slightly different than Real Clear Politics’ and favors Hillary Clinton. This map reflects what a GOP strategist referred to as a “trend north of 350” regarding electoral college votes for Hillary Clinton, as the Inquisitr previously reported.

Another state where a dead-heat occurs is in Arizona, where Hillary Clinton leads by 1.3 percent according to Financial Times. Early ballot requests were up for women and for Democrats in Arizona, as previously reported. Nevada is a state that is currently a toss-up but moving in Hillary Clinton’s direction.

She currently leads in Nevada by 4.2 percent in polls, leading many pundits to take Nevada out of the swing state column and into the leaning Democrat column. In Minnesota, the numbers are identical, reports Financial Times, with Mrs. Clinton currently leading by 4.3 percent in Minnesota, and putting that state in the leaning Democrat column as well.

Georgia is another state that has gone back and forth for the candidates, which is unusual for the Republicans. Georgia has long been an easy state to win, but the candidates have been in a dead heat here as well for most of the election. Financial Times expects Mr. Trump to win Georgia, as he has a 4.6-point lead in the polls here today.

He has a similar result in Texas, despite speculation that Texas will go blue for the first time in decades. Financial Times puts Donald Trump 4.8 points ahead of Hillary Clinton in Texas, and Project 538 says that Hillary Clinton only has a 19 percent chance of winning Texas. Even so, it’s still considered a toss-up state and Financial Times says Donald Trump does not have this state, and it’s 38 electoral college votes, locked in yet.

Financial Times also has Hillary Clinton ahead in Pennsylvania by 6.2 points; an Alliances Poll has Hillary Clinton ahead in Pennsylvania by 4 points.

North Carolina is also a very tight race for both candidates but is starting to lean blue by most swing state polls. Financial Times has Hillary Clinton ahead by 2.5 points in North Carolina. Alliances Polls has her ahead by 5 points in North Carolina, which, if correct, would give North Carolina’s 15 electoral college votes to Hillary Clinton.

Iowa is a state that Hillary Clinton is not expected to win if current polls are accurate. Financial Times has Donald Trump ahead by 3.7 points in Iowa. FiveThirtyEight says Hillary Clinton is ahead in Iowa, but not by much, and only gives her a 56 percent chance of winning Iowa.

Florida is another swing state that has been very contentious for both candidates, as polling has swung in each candidate’s favor at some point during the election. It is going to be the state everyone is watching on election night because Donald Trump can not win without it. Financial Times has Hillary Clinton ahead in Florida by 3.8 points in polls.

Alliances Polls has her even further ahead, pushing Florida into the leaning blue category with a seven-point lead in Florida for Democrats. Even so, it is still a competitive state. Project 538 gives Hillary Clinton a 75.3 percent chance of winning Florida.

Although numbers do vary across polling data trackers, the numbers do not vary by significant margins. They reflect that New York Times report that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton may sweep the swing states is a very real possibility, but not a sure thing. It is clear that she has a much easier path to 270 electoral college votes than her Republican opponent Donald Trump. These numbers and polls for the Financial Times, Alliances Polls, FiveThirtyEight, and the New York Times, used in this report, have been updated to reflect nationwide polling data from within the last 24 hours.

[Feature Image by Uncredited/AP Images]

Share this article: Elections 2016 Swing State Polls: Hillary Clinton Working For Swing State Sweep, Donald Trump’s Path To 270 More Difficult
hillary clinton Donald Trump
More from Inquisitr