The United States and Russia are days away from something that hasn’t happened in more than half a century. With the expiration of a nuclear arms control treaty with no replacement ready, it seems as if Trump is not concerned in the least.
The agreement is New START, the last remaining treaty that limits the number of strategic nuclear weapons held by Washington and Moscow. It expires in less than a month, on February 5, 2026, and so far, there are no talks of a new treaty being pursued. After its expiration, there will be no binding limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, according to Reuters.
When President Donald Trump was asked about the looming deadline in an interview with The New York Times, he didn’t sound concerned.
Russia-US nuclear pact set to end in 2026 and we won’t see another
After the New START treaty expires in February, there will be no cap on the number of US and Russian nuclear weapons ― but some are skeptical about whether the deal actually made the world safer… pic.twitter.com/4B9cTGedBQ
— David Ullrich (@DavidUllrich202) January 2, 2026
“If it expires, it expires,” Trump shrugged off the possibility. He added that the United States could pursue a “better deal,” potentially one that brings China into the conversation.
New START was signed in 2010 and later extended under President Joe Biden. It is a treaty document that caps each country at 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and limits the number of missiles, bombers, and submarines that can carry them. It also created inspection rules meant to let both sides verify compliance.
But, even though there was a treaty in place, those inspections have already broken down.
Russia suspended its participation in New START’s verification regime in 2023, citing tensions over Ukraine. The treaty technically remains in force, but the mechanisms that made it meaningful have been eroding for years.
Russia and the United States have not had any talks about a treaty to replace the New START nuclear treaty, which will expire on February 5. Putin has proposed a 12-month extension, but the Trump administration has not yet responded. https://t.co/FGQn2mEVHi
— Shahriyar Gourgi (@ShahriyarGourgi) January 8, 2026
Moscow has floated one last off-ramp, seemingly to adhere to their agreement. Russian President Vladimir Putin said last year that Russia would continue observing the treaty’s numerical limits for one additional year, but only if the United States agreed to do the same.
As at the time of this writing, Washington has not accepted the offer. Even so, analysts say both countries have largely stayed within the treaty’s limits. Not because they have to — but because New START still acts as a stabilizer, anchoring expectations on both sides.
Without it, there is nothing to stop either country from increasing deployed warheads or fielding new systems. No inspections. No data exchanges. No ceiling. Yet, it begs the question if the countries were completely transparent and accountable in recent years anyway.
🚨🇷🇺🇺🇸 RUSSIA TO U.S.: ANSWER THE PHONE OR WE’RE DONE WITH NUKE RULES
New START – the last treaty keeping both sides honest on strategic nukes – is dying by neglect, and Moscow just put Washington on blast.
Trump’s new National Security Strategy talks about “reestablishing… pic.twitter.com/J8CMCPQm3Z
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) December 10, 2025
According to Interfax Russia, Trump has suggested a broader agreement, saying, “We might want to bring in a couple of other players.” It seems that he may want to include China in the treaty. That remains a long shot since Beijing has repeatedly refused to join trilateral arms control talks and is in the middle of expanding its nuclear arsenal.
Estimates suggest China could surpass 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, though it remains far behind the U.S. and Russia in total stockpiles. For arms control experts, the concern isn’t just numbers. It’s predictability.
For decades, treaties like New START provided rules, routines, and a sense of where the other side stood. Once those guardrails disappear, miscalculation becomes easier.
Trump, though, has framed the treaty’s end as leverage — not loss. The deadline is now weeks away.
After February, the nuclear balance between Washington and Moscow will rely less on paperwork and more on assumption. And assumption has a poor track record.
