Republicans have a nightmare midterms ahead as a new Marist poll shows Democrats opening up a jaw dropping 14 point lead on the generic congressional ballot, a margin big enough to send shockwaves through Trump world and light up cable news chyrons about a possible blue wave.
The survey of 1,443 adults, taken November 10 to 13, finds Democrats leading Republicans 55 to 41 percent when voters are asked which party’s candidate they would back for Congress if the midterms were held today. It is the largest advantage Democrats have held in this poll since 2017, the last time Trump sat in the Oval Office and the cycle that ended with Democrats flipping 40 House seats.
On Morning Joe, the segment built around the numbers was literally titled “This is staggering,” with Scarborough noting that he had not seen a gap that wide in decades.
Under the hood, the poll looks even worse for Republicans. Independents, the people who usually decide close midterms, are breaking hard against the GOP. According to the NPR, independents choose Democrats by a 33 point margin on the generic ballot, a complete reversal from a year ago when the parties were essentially tied.
The same survey pegs Trump’s overall job approval at 39 percent, the lowest of his second term in Marist polling, with almost half of respondents, 48 percent, saying they strongly disapprove of the job he is doing.
On the issues that usually help Republicans, Trump is now plainly underwater. Voters give him poor marks on his handling of the economy and say he has “gone too far” on immigration, a one two punch that erodes the GOP’s traditional advantage on pocketbook and border concerns. Nearly six in ten respondents say his top priority should be lowering prices, and even a plurality of Republicans put the cost of living ahead of immigration.
Other polls back up the picture of an economic liability in the making. A recent Fox News survey found that 76 percent of Americans have a negative view of the national economy and 46 percent say Trump’s policies have hurt their personal finances. A separate Reuters Ipsos poll puts approval of his handling of inflation and household expenses at just 26 percent, with frustration over prices still running high despite a cooling jobs market.
It is clear voters do not like the pressure on their wallets, and they are increasingly blaming the man in charge. That is exactly the kind of environment that usually produces midterm pain for the president’s party, only this time the president is a Republican and the numbers suggest Democrats are the ones poised to cash in.
The election is still months away and the map is warped by aggressive gerrymandering, which means even a double digit national edge does not automatically translate into a Democratic rout. Republicans still control all the levers of power in Washington and Trump remains overwhelmingly popular with his base, with roughly nine in ten Republicans telling Marist they approve of the job he is doing.
Democrats, despite their own deep brand problems, now hold their biggest edge for control of Congress in eight years, and Trump, once the GOP’s economic salesman in chief, is being punished for the very issue he insisted he could own. If this is only a snapshot, it is still a snapshot that has Republicans staring at the same thing Joe Scarborough saw on his screen this week, something that can only be described as staggering.
