The Bizarre Way Washington Commanders’ Victory Could Predict the Election Winner — Yet Again

Washington Commanders’ latest win against the Chicago Bears might just hint at the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. Known as the ‘Redskins Rule’  (named after the team's former identity), this quirky prediction method has linked the team’s last home game result before Election Day to whether the incumbent party remains in the White House. Historically, the Commanders' win signals that the incumbent party will retain power, while a loss suggests the rival party will prevail. With their recent thrilling victory, some speculate that Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, could have an edge over Donald Trump on November 5.

As per Newsweek, this strange football election correlation dates back to 1940. The ‘Redskins Rule’ held true for every election up to 2000, with only a few anomalies since. However, sports analyst Steve Hirdt proposed a twist called ‘Redskins Rule 2.0,’ which considers the outcome relative to the popular vote. Hirdt explained, "Redskins Rule 2.0 established that when the popular vote winner does not win the election, the impact of the Redskins game on the subsequent presidential election gets flipped."

Despite the team’s win offering some hopeful signs for Harris supporters, this is just one of many popular prediction theories as Election Day approaches. From analysts and pundits to sports enthusiasts and pollsters, prediction fever is gripping the country. FiveThirtyEight, a leading election forecast model, currently shows Trump leading narrowly in 53 out of 100 simulations. Although Trump’s odds appear favorable, founder Nate Silver cautions that any candidate’s chance of winning is “only a little better than a coin flip” when numbers are this close.

Yet, with so many conflicting polls and predictions circulating, experts warn voters not to get too invested in forecasted outcomes. As George Washington University professor Imani Cheers explains, "It shouldn't be passive. It shouldn't be something that people are not speculating on because it's a really big deal and this election in particular is critical…There are a number of very, very, very important issues front of mind for millions and millions of people," as noted by USA Today. “Especially when we're really talking about numerous variables that are going to come into play in people's choices and for people who may say, 'all the polls said (Trump) was going to win, and he didn't – it was rigged,'" Cheers further added.

Another cause for caution is the partisan influence on polling and predictions. Experts have noted an influx of partisan polls designed to sway public opinion, muddying the data. Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher has expressed concern over voters misunderstanding these “statistical ties” as definitive predictions, which can have unpredictable consequences in such a closely contested race. Belcher remarked, "People need to get off the poll-er coaster. They need to step back from it because people are gaming it and they're playing in our faces…It is not the job of a poll or pollsters to tell the future because we can't."