Bernie’s Big Weekend: Democratic Caucuses May Give Sanders Campaign Boost

Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator and Democratic presidential candidate, is positioned to take three out of the four states that are holding their caucuses this weekend. These wins could give the Sanders’ campaign a much-needed boost after a Super Tuesday that many are heralding as a major Hillary Clinton win.

Three of the four states voting this weekend are considered to be part of the “Sanders sweet spot,” meaning caucus states with largely white populations. They include Kansas, Maine, and Nebraska. The fourth state, Louisiana, will almost certainly go to Clinton.

Even if Sanders does take all three states, he still faces a large delegate deficit against Clinton, but a string of victories in one weekend could give the campaign the surge of momentum and excitement it needs on the verge of the Michigan primary, a state that the Sanders campaign believes is pivotal to their path to the nomination.

“If you could put those together and win Michigan, I think you’ve got the beginnings of ‘hey, maybe we shouldn’t be closing the door yet,'” said Joe Trippi, a veteran presidential campaign Democratic strategist.

Sanders didn’t spend any money on ads in Louisiana, but more than one-fifth of his spending since the beginning of March has gone to television, cable, and radio ads in Kansas and Nebraska. Polls in Kansas do show Clinton with a slight lead over Sanders, but 40 percent of voters remain undecided. Furthermore, caucus states are notoriously hard to poll.

The demographics of Kansas, along with Nebraska and Maine, combined with Sanders’ widespread victories in the similarly situated states of Minnesota and Colorado during Super Tuesday, indicate that his state still remains competitive.

Sanders’ resounding economic message of breaking up the big banks and promoting income equality resonate with the history of prairie populists, who have long been distrustful of banks and corporations. Sanders has also hammered his belief that Social Security should be expanded, as well as highlighting his long-time opposition to the Keystone pipeline, which would run through both Nebraska and Kansas. In doing so, Sanders points out a marked contrast between himself and Clinton, who refused to take a position on the issue until September, when she finally announced her opposition to the Keystone pipeline.

Clinton does have the support of “big-name” Kansas Democrats, including former Governor Kathleen Sebelius. But there remains an unstoppable enthusiasm from Sanders’ supporters in the Sunflower State.

“As a Bernie organizer and as someone working on Bernie’s campaign it’s incredibly hard to imagine him not winning,” said the Kansas state director for the Sanders campaign, Shelby Iseler, who compared Kansas to neighboring Oklahoma, which was one of four states Sanders won on Super Tuesday.

And Douglas County, home to the University of Kansas and a very liberal pocket in an ultra-conservative state, is almost certainly to go for Bernie, and it is central to his plan.

“I think Bernie will carry this part of Kansas,” said Curtis Hall, the Douglas County chairman.

Barry Rubin, the former executive director of the Nebraska Democratic party, had a similar positive outlook for Bernie Sanders in his own state. He did caution, however, that Clinton could do very well.

“Senator Sanders is here today claiming that they expect to win and I think they probably have an advantage. Overall, I think they’ve been expecting to win Nebraska for a while,” said Rubin. “But I can tell you based on just what I’m seeing the Clinton campaign’s been on the ground here for quite some time now and they have some really competent organizers working throughout the state and I know they’re working hard to earn the vote of caucus goers. So I would not be surprised to see Secretary Clinton doing better than expected.”

Maine is a little closer to home for Sanders, and his New England ties will almost certainly work in his favor. Sanders won by incredibly huge margins in Vermont and New Hampshire and lost narrowly in Massachusetts.

Maine Democratic Party executive director Jeremy Kennedy cautioned against the belief that Maine is a certainty for Sanders, though, but it does have a strong progressive bent in the form of Portland.

“I’ve seen one poll recently and Sanders did come out on top. I think that’s probably the operating assumption here,” Kennedy said. “I don’t think the Clinton campaign would have sent I don’t know how many staffers up here. They’ve opened up four offices, they have like 20 or 30 staffers here. They wouldn’t have put all these resources into Maine if they didn’t think it was up for grabs. And it’s a delegate grab. Everyone’s trying to get every delegate that they can. So even if you don’t win, you’re still racking up the total.”

Sanders drew in huge crowds with his appearances in Maine, however.

“I don’t think [the Super Tuesday results] will turn the caucuses in Maine around in her direction,” David Farmer, a Democratic operative based in Maine, said.

“I just think the energy on the Bernie side to go out and caucus is such that they are going to draw their people out…the Bernie team on the ground has been working hard. And I just don’t think the big wins in the South are going to change the outcome here.”

Based on where Sanders spent his time and money since Super Tuesday, his campaign certainly believes that Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine are all up for grabs, and many political experts agree. And taking those three states will give Bernie Sanders the momentum he needs to make a grab for Michigan, a state that his campaign has identified as pivotal for him on his path to the nomination.