CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, said on Thursday that Republicans “can’t win” the midterm elections if President Donald Trump’s position on cost-of-living issues does not improve. He pointed to new polling showing Trump at a record low on this issue.
Speaking on CNN, Enten stated that Trump was currently 41 points underwater on the cost-of-living issue. This marks a significant change from October 2024, when Trump had a slight edge over then-Vice President Kamala Harris on this topic.
Enten described the latest numbers, based on polling conducted from March 12 to March 16, as the weakest point of Trump’s presidency on what he called the country’s top issue.
“You can’t win when you’re 41 points below water on the cost of living,” Enten explained. He argued that the same issue harmed Democrats in the 2024 election and could now hurt Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms. Enten noted that independents have shifted even more dramatically, highlighting a 71-point swing from Trump’s 2024 advantage to a current 60-point deficit.
This is the most troublesome sign I’ve seen for Trump & the GOP.
Trump’s now a record low 41 pts underwater on the cost of living per Yahoo/YouGov.
He’s 60 pts underwater on the issue with indies!!
Wave adios to the House & maybe Senate cause you can’t win with these numbers. pic.twitter.com/2ISqLK0HN3
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 19, 2026
These comments came as fuel prices continued to rise due to the conflict involving Iran and disruptions in energy markets. Reuters reported on Thursday that the national average gas price had increased sharply in recent weeks.
Vice President J.D. Vance acknowledged that Americans faced a “rough road ahead,” even while calling the price spike temporary. The Trump administration has tried to mitigate the impact by releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and issuing a 60-day shipping waiver to aid fuel deliveries.
As of March 19, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline was $3.88 a gallon, up about 90 cents since the beginning of March, according to Investopedia, which cited AAA data.
Enten emphasized that this issue matters because cost of living remains the top concern for voters. He pointed out that 38% of voters identified it as the main election issue in October 2024, while the latest figure of 39% showed little change. In his opinion, this situation puts Republicans in a weak position if the party continues to be linked to rising prices.
President Trump hits 67% disapproval rating on the cost of living in latest Fox News poll.
Trump told Dana Bash this morning that gas prices will “drop to record lows.” pic.twitter.com/3IqXtb9FAT
— The American Conservative (@amconmag) March 6, 2026
Economic uncertainty has also complicated the outlook in Washington. Reuters reported that the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady this week amid rising oil prices. Officials are considering how the Iran conflict might contribute to inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the path ahead is uncertain, as policymakers wait to see how long the disruptions last and how much they impact consumer prices.
This situation has increased the political risk for the White House. Rising gas and diesel prices affect consumers quickly, and increased fuel costs can lead to higher expenses for food, shipping, and other household items. Enten argued on air that if voters still view cost of living as the country’s top problem by November 2026, Republicans will have difficulty maintaining their House majority and could potentially jeopardize their Senate majority as well.
For now, the White House is hoping that the price increases will subside. Enten cautioned that voters may not wait that long.
