A Trump-aligned economist warned that the U.S. economy might be in worse shape than previously thought as oil prices soared. This situation adds further pressure on inflation and fuel costs amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.
E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation and a former Trump nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, told the Financial Times that he believed the economy could not handle $100 oil because the underlying conditions were weaker than many assumed.
Antoni made his remarks as global crude prices jumped after attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East raised fears of supply disruption. Reuters reported that Brent crude reached as high as $119.13 a barrel on March 19 before settling lower, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate briefly hit $100.02. This increase followed Iranian strikes on energy sites in the Gulf after a previous attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field.
The price surge has concerned American consumers who are already struggling with a higher cost of living. The Washington Post noted that average U.S. gas prices had climbed to around $3.84 a gallon.
Terrifying warning on live TV: If Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, the global economy will face an unprecedented collapse worse than 2008. The Western world simply cannot survive sustained $130 oil barrels. Trump’s war is a massive gamble with our lives. pic.twitter.com/TYRwv2X8Is
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) March 18, 2026
Market volatility pushed investors to reevaluate the inflation outlook and interest rates. AP reported that traders expecting rate cuts began to think the Federal Reserve might keep policy tighter for longer if energy costs stay high.
Antoni argued that lower energy prices had helped hide economic weakness last year, but that cushion is now fading. Per the FT report, he said inflation has been worse than official readings indicated and pointed to slower job growth and weaker economic output.
The FT reported that U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised down to 0.7%, adding to the sense that the economy entered this latest oil shock with less strength than expected.
This warning presents a political challenge for Trump and his allies because Antoni is not a Democratic critic or an external opponent. He is linked to conservative economic circles and was nominated by Trump to head the BLS before that nomination was withdrawn. The Daily Beast, citing the FT report, mentioned that Antoni attributed the current vulnerability to a labor market that is already showing signs of strain.
Jerome Powell, President of the FED:
“Job gains have remained low. Inflation remains elevated”
“High inflation largely reflects the price of goods, mainly due to tariffs”
“Short-term inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks due to the situation in the Middle East” pic.twitter.com/6kp249imDK
— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) March 18, 2026
Other economists also expressed concern that rising oil prices could have a significant impact at a delicate time. Business Insider reported that Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, stated that the combination of a weakening job market and rising oil prices increased the risk of recession. He noted that oil shocks have often preceded most U.S. recessions since World War II.
The Trump administration has started discussing measures to ease the pressure. The New York Post reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said officials were considering additional releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a temporary easing of sanctions on Iranian oil already stored at sea.
It remains uncertain whether these moves would provide quick relief as markets monitor the next phase of the conflict and the stability of shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.
To wrap up his remarks, Antoni was warning that the threat is not just high oil prices but what those prices could reveal about an economy he claims is weaker than many in Trump’s circle had hoped.
