Pollsters Who Called 2016 Race Make 2020 Prediction
Two pollsters who accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 race, Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage and Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group, appeared on Fox News on Tuesday to weigh in on the 2020 presidential election.
Speaking with anchor Sean Hannity, both men suggested that public polling is not an accurate reflection of the ongoing race between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
Towery said that he expects Trump to do “very well” in the key state of Florida, but noted that he believes the Midwest could be “problematic” for the president.
Still, he described Trump as “the most dynamic presidential candidate of my lifetime,” suggesting that there is a chance he catches up to Biden in final days of the campaign.
Towery pointed out that Trump has been hitting the campaign trail, holding rallies in rural areas, where he could drive GOP turnout and annul his opponent’s advantage.
The pollster explained that his surveys show the president making gains with both older and younger voters. He described Biden’s comments on fracking and transitioning away from the oil industry as a “huge mistake,” arguing that this has created an opening for Trump to woo key voting blocs in Pennsylvania.
Towery added that the Republican incumbent seems to be benefiting from his opponent’s stance on coronavirus restrictions.
“I’m beginning to see that shift and I really believe that has something to do with the dichotomy between what Trump is saying, which is we’re going to keep this country open and moving and Biden alluding to the fact we may have another shutdown.”
Cahaly, who correctly predicted Trump’s upset victories in several battleground states four years ago, agreed that the races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin “are very close” and described the contest in North Carolina as “very tight.”
Cahaly alleged that electoral manipulation could benefit Biden, stating that he is “very concerned about voter fraud, especially in Pennsylvania.”
The pollster has previously argued that most surveys underestimate Trump’s support. In an interview last week, he suggested that “shy” voters could propel the president to victory.
According to Cahaly, many voters are reluctant to express support for polarizing and controversial politicians like Trump, so they mislead pollsters.
“Especially when dealing with a live caller, the person being asked the questions will craft their answer in a way that puts them in the best light to the person asking the question,” he said.
As Fox News noted, the RealClearPolitics average of national polling data shows Biden with a 7.1 point advantage.
As reported by USA Today, latest polling suggests that Trump has made gains in some swing states, but Biden is still ahead in 10 of them.
