A “States of Play” survey from CNBC and Change Research released on Wednesday shows presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in five out of six battleground states, The Hill reported.
In particular, Biden leads Trump by 6 percent in Florida, 5 percent in Michigan, four points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and one point in Arizona. The only state that the incumbent holds over his challenger is North Carolina, where he leads by one point. At the national level, Biden leads Trump by 6 percentage points.
“The findings are the latest in a slew of polls to show Biden leading Trump in states the president won in 2016, raising alarm bells for the president’s reelection campaign,” The Hill said.
“The Trump campaign has honed in on a number of swing states, launching bus tours, releasing ads, and having the president travel to the states in hopes of boosting his chances in November.”
Despite the recent slew of bad news for Trump, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver argued that it’s still too early to count the president out of the running in November. Silver noted the months between August and November, when the Democratic and Republican party conventions will be held, as well as the upcoming debates.
In addition to these variables, which he argued could shift the race, he pointed to the unprecedented times defined by economic depression and the coronavirus pandemic.
“Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day,” he wrote.
According to Silver, the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast puts Trump with a 29 out of 100 chance of taking the Electoral College. Although Biden is still favored to win the election, the numbers are very similar to the publication’s forecast in 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a historic upset that went unpredicted by the majority of pollsters.
According to a Tuesday Monmouth University survey, Biden is ahead of the president by 10 percentage points nationally. As reported by Politico, the lead is a slight decrease from the same iteration of the pollster’s survey in June. But the publication claims that the race appears to be stabilizing in favor of Biden, which it says is likely mainly due to poor public perception of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Earlier this month, a Democratic Institute poll put the U.S. leader ahead of Biden nationally by 2 percentage points. As The Inquisitr reported, the report found that the shy Trump voter demographic increased from the last iteration of the data.