President Donald Trump will not win reelection in 2020, even though by all rights he should, Yahoo Finance writer Rick Newman opines. Newman points to four key areas in which Trump has come up short, and which voters are likely to remember in November.
Assuming he survives his trial in the Senate and isn’t removed from office, a conclusion that is all but certain at this point, according to most analyses, Trump will face an unknown Democratic Party nominee on Election Day. Newman says that, on the surface, all indicators point to Trump winning handily.
“Trump should be a shoo-in,” he said.
But, in fact, that’s not the case, for the reasons that Newman articulates.
Addressing what he calls a “blind spot” in the Trump administration, Newman notes that tens of millions of Americans rely on government-subsidized health insurance via the Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare” as it’s colloquially known.
The Trump administration has tried valiantly to dismantle that act, and may yet succeed, which would at once leave an estimated 20 million Americans without health insurance. What’s more, it would revive the old bugaboo of preexisting conditions, allowed insurers to deny coverage to certain individuals based on issues they had before signing up for a policy.
What’s more, Newman says, Trump actually has no plan for health care, beyond dismantling Obamacare.
Speaking of Barack Obama, though he’s been out of office for three years, his shadow will still loom large over the 2020 election.
Expect Obama, who has said little about Trump and even less about the current field of 2020 Democrats, to fully throw his support behind whomever the Democrats wind up nominating. Obama’s endorsement could energize minority candidates, who didn’t support Hillary Clinton as enthusiastically in 2016, and which likely played a role in costing her the election.
As of this writing, Bloomberg is an outlier among the crowded field of 2020 Democratic contenders. But it’s not Bloomberg himself who may yet wind up defeating Trump, but his money. The multibillionaire, whether he gets the nomination or not, has pledged to do whatever it takes to get Trump out of office, and he has the checkbook to back it up, says Newman.
“Whether he’s the Democratic nominee or not, Bloomberg’s spending on behalf of the party will probably produce a financial advantage, maybe a decisive one,” Newman says.
The booming economy that Trump touts as one of his major achievements in office isn’t actually making its way down to lower and middle-class Americans. Indeed, the Trump economy has benefited mostly the wealthy, while the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen.
What’s more, Newman predicts, the Trump economy is at once slowing and is predicted to slow even further in the coming months and into next year.
Traditional election-predicting models show that key figures in the economy don’t line up with what is required of an incumbent president to get reelected.