Donald Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million and still manage to win the 2020 presidential election, Michael Moore warns.
The documentary filmmaker who correctly predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election said in a recent interview with Democracy Now that he believes Trump seems to be on pace to lose the popular vote by an even bigger margin than the last cycle when Hillary Clinton received nearly 3 million more votes but still lost on a razor-thin margin in the electoral college.
But as the Independent noted, Moore predicted that Trump has maintained popularity in the states where he needs to win to withstand a big loss in the popular vote and once again win the electoral votes necessary to be re-elected.
“The problem is… if the vote were today, I believe, he [Mr Trump] would win the electoral states that he would need because living out there, I will tell you, his level of support has not gone down one inch,” he said.
Moore added that the support for Trump in these places is “even more rabid” than before because they have seen Trump’s erratic behavior and are afraid that he could lose. Moore had predicted ahead of the 2016 election that Trump would win, saying that Democrats expecting to cruise to victory were underestimating the president’s support in states like his native Michigan, which Trump won.
Moore said that if Democrats wanted to win in 2020, they needed a nominee who would not be a moderate like Hillary Clinton, but instead someone who “excites the base,” especially women, people of color, and young people.
It is a prediction that Moore has frequently repeated. In a recent interview with Rolling Stone, Moore again said that Trump’s base could be enough to propel him to victory.
“The popular vote is going to be huge,” Moore said. “But Trump has not lost his base. They’ve gotten bigger, and angrier, and whiter, and madder.”
And Moore is not alone in predicting that Trump could win re-election in 2020. CNN called on a series of its political experts for predictions in 2020, including who would win the election. A majority said that Trump would win, though some had the opposite assessment as Moore when it came to the Democratic nominee. Law enforcement expert James Gagliano noted that the leftward move among Democratic candidates seemed a formula for failure.
Gagliano predicted that the “current Democratic primary contenders champion democratic socialism and a one-party impeachment process that convinces me [Trump] wins again in 2020.”