As President Donald Trump faces an intense impeachment inquiry brought on by House Democrats in response to his July 25 phone call in which he reportedly pressured the Ukrainian president for information on his potential 2020 presidential competitor, analysts are already running the numbers on the consequences of a presidential resignation from office.
According to The Hill, Wall Street firm Raymond James revealed that in a hypothetical situation where Trump resigned from the White House, the stock market would go into shock but would quickly rally with Vice President Mike Pence at the helm.
“After the initial shock, we think the market rallies as Pence is a predictable, traditional, conservative choice,” the firm stated in a Wednesday paper, as reported by CNN Business.
The investment firm also admitted that Trump’s potential resignation is a “low probability event,” but firm analyst Chris Meekins explained that his company published the report based on the rumblings of Washington insiders who have considered the possibility of it happening.
“Independently, different people associated with Trump’s orbit brought this idea up unsolicited,” Meekin told CNN Business.
Going further, Raymond James said that in the case of Trump’s resignation, a long list of industries who do business with China would stand to gain, based on Pence’s leadership and his probability of moving away from tariffs.
“The markets can live happily with Pence, on trade in particular,” chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments Greg Valliere told CNN Business. “Pence would get along far better with the Chamber of Commerce and the free trade advocates. He’d shy away from tariffs.”
Valliere described the difference in the effect Trump has on the markets versus what Pence’s leadership would likely have, saying Trump’s style is too unpredictable and Pence’s more controlled manner would fare better for market stability.
“Trump has become so erratic and unpredictable that it’s annoying for the markets,” Valliere said. “Pence is a boring, conservative, pro-business Midwesterner.”
As previously reported by The Inquistr, another top firm recently created an index to track the effect of Trump’s tweets on the stock market, which apparently has a measurable impact on the daily numbers.
JPMorgan Chase created what they dubbed the “Volfefe Index,” which tracks Trump’s impact on financial markets, using data from particular words Trump uses in his tweets along with the time he posts.
The firm explained that since the Trump administration is dialed in on monetary policy and trade, which the president often tweets about, they needed to figure out how to track the effects on everything from single stocks to large funds.
“In response, a broad swath of assets from single-name stocks to macro products have found their price dynamics increasingly beholden to a handful of tweets from the commander-in-chief,” the firm said in a statement.