One factor nearly every political analyst agrees was a major contributor to Trump’s 2016 presidential victory was independent voters who despised Hillary Clinton. Newsweek is now reporting that Trump is in overall disapproval with that key demographic so vital to Donald Trump’s electoral success.
Hillary Clinton appeared to be close to Donald Trump’s equivalent in terms of polarizing figures during the 2016 general election. Political analysts often commented that the election was a competition of who was the “least hated” figure, rather than the most respected.
In the end, the election results determined, by about 3 million votes, that Donald Trump was ultimately the candidate voters least preferred, in terms of popularity.
Unfortunately for Democratic voters, the popular vote wasn’t the deciding factor as to who would ultimately be the next commander in chief. As has been the electoral policy for more than a century, the president is decided by the Electoral College, which gives extra voting weight to less populated and rural areas.
In a poll released on Friday, July 27, 2018, the majority of “Never Hillary” independent voters disapprove of Donald Trump. Out of more than 50,000 independent respondents, 51 percent of those indicated that they do not approve of the current president, with 47 percent expressing approval.
With midterm elections just around the corner, such polling could indicate potential trouble for Donald Trump, as votes for senators and representatives, if in line with polling, could cause a shakeup in either the House of Representatives or in the Senate. A Democrat majority in either the House or Senate would significantly hobble the Trump presidency.
Independent votes will likely be crucial to the 2018 midterms and as such, will be crucial to the remainder of Trump’s legacy as president, not to mention his potential tenure, once the 2020 general election is underway.
The Axios poll also reports that voters in the 18-43 age group expressed an overwhelming disapproval of Trump, at 63 percent.
Those identifying as suburban white woman, another key-demographic for Trump, expressed voter disapproval at 55 percent, while African-American women were the demographic expressing the least amount of approval in the poll. Only 12 percent of African-American women expressed approval of Trump, with a staggering 85 percent disapproving.
In fact, the only demographic expressing general approval of Donald Trump was rural voters, whose approval, while solid, didn’t appear to be overwhelming either. In total, approximately 56 percent of rural voters said that they approved of the president.
Axios reported a margin-of-error of 1.5 percentage points in the referenced poll.
Nate Silver’s popular website FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates polling data from all available pollsters currently has Donald Trump’s national approval rating at only 41.5 percent. By comparison that approval rating is the lowest for an American president at this stage of his presidency since Harry S. Truman in 1946.