Donald Trump Fails A Fact Check On His Approval Rating Polls

Evan VucciAP Images

In a radio interview this week, Donald Trump boasted his approval ratings were at 51 percent approval, citing the polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports as his source. The Hill reports that Donald Trump went on to add that those numbers by Rasmussen weren’t legitimate and that the 51 percent should have “another 7 or 8 points” added, adding that his real supporters “don’t want to talk about it.” Global News reports today that those remarks by the president “may not fully comport with reality.

The Hill reports that Donald Trump appeared on a radio interview for Bernie and Sid in the Morning on 77 WABC in New York this week. Trump talked approval rating polls, citing a poll by Rasmussen Reports and suggesting it was incorrect. Donald Trump also suggested that he had more supporters than the polls reflected, but that his supporters just didn’t want to talk about how they approved of his job performance.

“A poll just came out now, Rasmussen, it’s now 51. They say it’s 51 but add another seven or eight points to it. They don’t want to talk about it, but when they get into the booth, they’re going to vote for Trump.”

Rasmussen Reports is the only online portal reporting an approval rating for the president that has passed the 50 percent point. Donald Trump’s approval rating is consistently higher on Rasmussen Reports, whose polling methods consistently lack transparency.

Other approval rating polls of the president this week are lower than Rasmussen Reports by at least 10 points, and not higher by seven or eight. Real Clear Politics offers an approval rating for the president at 41.5 percent this week as of Friday. Gallup’s Weekly Job Performance poll of Donald Trump has him at an approval rating of 39 percent, and 55 percent that disapproved of Donald Trump’s performance.

In every outlet that uses scientific methods to report approval ratings, the number of registered Democrats polled is published, and the number of registered Republicans polled is published. The number of Independents polled is published as well.

Rasmussen Reports does not offer such transparency on their randomized approval rating polls. Global News out of Canada refers to Rasmussen Reports methods as “less reliable” than others due to a method of polling called the “automated calling method.”

Federal law prohibits automated dialing to cell phones in the United States, and so an automated dialing method of polling would eliminate any possible poll participants that only use cell phones. Due to this elimination, this would also eliminate the “random sampling” method used in polling that makes it scientific and more accurate.

During the 2016 campaign, Donald Trump and his supporters consistently called all polls providing scientific transparency as “fake polls” or “fake news.” His election win was cited as “proof” that the polls were wrong, after the national polls predicted a win for Hillary Clinton, noting a wide lead in the polls. But as The Hill notes, the polls measure popular opinion, and Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost three million votes, in line with the margins predicted by the national polls during the campaign.

Rasmussen Reports uses an online portal to conduct much of its polling and does not offer data on how many people were polled, or who was polled, leading many to question its accuracy.

Donald Trump refers to Rasmussen Reports frequently.

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In addition to Trump approval ratings posted by Gallup and Real Clear Politics, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research Fund found a Trump approval rating of 42 percent. Global News reports that neither Gallup nor The Associated Press uses automated calling for poll tallying.

Morning Consult has also been tracking Donald Trump’s approval rating, nationally and by state. They reported this week that March was “unkind” to the president when it comes to approval ratings, saying his approval rating “hits record low” for March. Protests and marches against the president are still a part of American culture today, as are widespread campaigns to have the president impeached.

Donald Trump Meets Disapproval At Protests
Featured image credit: Ted S. WarrenAP Images

In March, Donald Trump’s approvals were 41 percent approved and 54 percent disapproved of his performance. That puts him 13 points underwater and a four-point decline from February. Morning Consult also reports that Donald Trump has lost points across many states as well, losing a net swing of nine points in Iowa alone.

Donald Trump’s claim that his voters “don’t want to talk about” how much they support him also does not hold up to a fact check, at least on Twitter. Many of his voters know that he is a tweeting president, and they are apt to take to Twitter to voice their concerns to the president directly. And many do have concerns that they want to talk about that lean on the disapproval side of things.

Many stockholders have been tweeting the president, saying he’s making things very uncomfortable at their house. Other tweets from Trump voters call him a racist, a fool, and a bully.

A large number of tweets have gone to the president expressing concerns about their retirement funds that are based on stock market success. These Trump voters do want to talk about it, one saying the “racist” evidence is “overwhelming.”

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Thousands of Americans use the Amazon marketplace as a source of their income and are not happy when the president slams Amazon on Twitter. Tech Crunch reports that there are over two million Amazon sellers worldwide, with over two billion items being sold worldwide in 2014.

Many of those sellers are Americans. When the president slams Amazon on Twitter, those Americans use the same forum to talk about it as his tweets directly impact their own personal bottom line.

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It is entirely possible that Donald Trump’s claims that his supporters will still vote for him when they go in the booth are correct. He will always have supporters.

But many Americans are begging the president for consistency and a calm air for the stock market for at least one week. Those Americans that are struggling financially from week to week because of a president’s tweet rants will think twice when they go to the voting booth.

Donald Trump’s claim that his approval ratings by Rasmussen Reports should be many points higher fails a fact check. Also, Donald Trump’s voters, some of whom include the alt-right, are not generally or consistently described as quiet folks that don’t want to voice their concerns.

Many of his own voters are not surprised by Trump’s low approval ratings and are quick to address that with him directly on Twitter. His claims that his supporters “don’t want to talk about it” also does not “fully comport with reality” as noted by Global News.