Call of Duty: WWII is expected to enjoy strong revenue in 2018 due to sales from the end of last year, according to a Wall Street analyst from Cowen. However, Destiny 2 is expected to earn less revenue than previously predicted due to a loss of players for reasons that have been commented on by the community frequently.
Cowen analyst Doug Cruetz sent a note to clients picked up by CNBC titled “Destiny is Not in a Good Place.”.
“While Call of Duty: WWII clearly had a great holiday, which likely sets up strong franchise live services revenue in 2018, Destiny 2 is struggling right now with player engagement appearing to be on the wane.”
“We are a bit cautious that potentially disappointing live service revenue there could at least partially offset upside from CoD in 2018.”
Cruetz noted the increasing disengagement from major Destiny 2 YouTube and Twitch personalities reported on by the Inquisitr earlier. He added that Twitch viewership has dropped precipitously from an average of 14,000 to 17,000 for Destiny 1 down to 4,000 to 7,000 with Destiny 2.
Meanwhile, the analyst’s notes on why Destiny 2 is underperforming sounds exactly like concerns voiced by the game’s community. In fact, the number one decision echoes an Inquisitr opinion piece published at the beginning of January.
- “Design decisions were made that have made D2 a less engaging, and less distinctive, game than D1. In particular, key aspects of the D2 end game feel neutered compared to D1.”
- “Microtransaction implementation, while not nearly as problematic as in Star Wars Battlefront 2, has still been a source of player unhappiness.”
- “Bungie’s [the studio that developed the game] apparent urgency in responding to player feedback has been disappointing.”
- “Until recently, Bungie did a poor job communicating its road map going forward, particularly compared to the more open stance of many other live service games.”
These issues and the loss of player engagement are expected affect sales of in-game items along with upcoming Destiny 2 expansions, which will, in turn, affect the game’s revenue potential. The God of Mars DLC is expected to be released this spring followed by a larger expansion in September.
Bungie is working to address player complaints and has provided a roadmap for the next nine months. Much of the items listed are to bring back functionality or similar functionality from Destiny 1. This has also been noted by the Destiny community with some wondering if it will be better to wait until the big expansion in September to jump in.
The problem for Bungie and Destiny 2 is an increase in competition, another note of concern for the Cowen analyst. Ubisoft’s The Division has recovered from a rocky launch through continuous updates while free-to-pay Warframe is offering a wealth of content. Meanwhile, Anthem is expected from BioWare later this year, turning the shared-world shooter into a very crowded genre.