The only poll that reportedly predicted the Brexit outcome correctly is forecasting the next president of the United States.
According to virtually all the pollsters, Brexit, the U.K. referendum to leave (or exit) the European Union, was going down to defeat on June 23 amidst opposition by most of the remain-supporting London-centric political and media establishment that crossed ideological lines and boundaries. Brexit wound up winning with 52 percent of the vote.
The Democracy Institute, a Washington- and London-based think tank that describes itself as politically independent, claims to have published the only public poll nailing that Brexit would win and by how much.
A new poll from the Democracy Institute predicts the winner of the U.S. presidential election.
According to that organization, Republican nominee Donald Trump goes into Election Day with a five-point national lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton, although it is hedging just a bit.
“The new poll finds Trump establishing a clear lead over Clinton, 50 percent to 45 percent, among decided voters. The outcome nevertheless remains in doubt, as an unusually large number of undecided voters (10 percent) could yet swing the election Clinton’s way, although their eventual, disproportionate support for Trump is the more probable development. ‘If these late deciders end up voting for Trump,’ observes poll director Patrick Basham, ‘he could trounce Clinton by as much as 10 points in the popular vote.'”
The findings were derived from automated landline and cell phone contact with about 1,300 likely voters in the November 3 to November 6 time frame and have a 2.5 percent margin of error. Based on the data, Trump appears to be benefiting from the support of independent voters among other constituency groups.
The Democracy Institute notes that Clinton has a big lead with minority voters, but that Trump has double the support among African Americans than that of 2012 GOP standard-bearer Mitt Romney.
Another poll with a reputation of accuracy, the IBD/TIPP poll, gives Trump a two-point national edge over Clinton. Poll aggregator Real Clear Politics gives Clinton a three-point national edge, however, over Trump in both a one-on-one and a four-way national matchup, although the presidency is won on a state-by-state basis by the first candidate to reach 270 electoral votes.
As has been mentioned once or twice, the only poll that matters is on Election Day. With that in mind, there have been reports of voting machine problems, authorized poll watchers being blocked from voting precincts, and other irregularities in some swing states.
Nigel Farage, the former leader of the UK Independence Party who was the prime mover behind Brexit, spoke about the potential parallels between the two elections on the Fox Business Channel.
“You know, it feels just like Brexit day to me. All the smart money, all the commentators, all the foreign exchange dealers, the book makers, they all think that Hillary is going to do it. And yet, even those opinion polls conducted by conventional companies you find it very difficult to reach non-voters who are entering the process, even they show it as being so close as to be within the margin of error. We did it on Brexit Day because, a lot of people who don’t normally vote were motivated to get down to those polling stations and to do their stuff. Trump’s… got to win those swing states. He’s got to win Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio. I get that. And yet, I have a feeling that the world could be in for a very big shock tomorrow morning.”
This morning, statistician Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog tweeted that because of so many undecided voters in play, polling error risk is higher than normal, Bretibart News reported.
Without identifying a specific candidate, a Morning Consult/Politico exit poll indicates that voters “are twice as likely to say they want a president who is a ‘strong leader’ than in 2012.”
Do you think that there is any linkage between Brexit and the U.S. presidential election, which some are calling “Trexit”?
[Featured Image by David Goldman/AP Images]