The 2016 presidential election is less than 48 hours away and whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton will become the next president of the United States remains up in the air. Now we want to know — who do you believe will win? Clinton remains the favorite, but Trump claims that momentum is on his side. Or could the absolutely unexpected happen, with either Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party candidate Jill Stein pulling off the most unlikely political upset in history?
Which candidate do you expect to be the winner of the 2016 U.S. presidential election?— IQOnlinePolls (@IQOnlinePolls) November 6, 2016
Take the Inquisitr online poll above to register your opinion about who will win the election on Tuesday. Click the circle next to your answer to the question in the poll, then click “Vote” to see the current results.
UPDATE, November 7: With about 24 hours before polls start closing on election day, Tuesday, November 8, the Inquisitr Online poll shows that you, Inquisitr readers, believe that Donald Trump will win the presidential election. He lead the poll with 65 percent, to 32 percent for Hillary Clinton. Gary Johnson is the predicted winner by two percent of you and one percent expect Jill Stein to pull out a miraculous victory.
The poll will run until the early poll closings on Tuesday, so vote now.
Your vote counts — because many political experts believe that polls asking voters who they expect will win an election are more accurate that polls that ask who they want to win.
“Polls of voter expectations consistently yield more accurate forecasts than polls of voter intentions,” a Brookings Institute study conducted during the 2012 election found. “A small-scale structural model reveals that this is because we are polling from a broader information set, and voters respond as if they had polled 20 of their friends.”
In addition, the researchers said, “we can use expectations polls to extract accurate election forecasts even from extremely skewed samples.”
In other words, your vote in the poll above could help accurately predict the outcome of the election, possibly even better than the polls that ask who you actually plan to vote for. The two answers are not always the same.
Even the Los Angeles Times/USC-Dornsife daily tracking poll, which has gained notoriety this year as the only poll that consistently showed a significant and lasting lead for Trump — even showing the New York real estate mogul and reality TV personality ahead by six points with just two days to go in the race — also conducts a poll of voter expectations, in addition to its voter preference poll.
In that poll, as of November 6, 52.5 percent of voters say they expect that Clinton will actually win the election, compared to only 43.4 percent who expect Trump to emerge victorious.
The 9.1 percentage point difference stands in stark contrast to the same poll in which 48.2 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Trump, compared to 42.6 who plan to vote for Clinton.
Another group showing a surging preference for Trump — British and Irish bettors. According to a report by Britain’s Daily Mail newspaper on November 2, a whopping 91 percent of the bettors across the pond placed their money Monday and Tuesday on Trump, while only nine percent made a wager that Clinton would win.
The increase in wagering on Trump to win the U.S. presidency caused the odds on the Republican to drop from 5/1 to a more conservative 9/4. To translate those odds into dollar terms, where a one dollar bet would have previously paid off five bucks if Trump were to win the election, that same bet of a dollar made now would pay only $2.25.
“You don’t normally see so much placed on the outside candidate but I think the shock of Brexit is fresh in people’s minds,” a spokesperson for the legal bookmaker Paddy Power said, referring to the June referendum in the United Kingdom in which 52 percent of U.K. voters cast ballots in favor of the U.K. pulling out of the European Union, a vote that stunned that country and sent shockwaves around the world.
Clinton remains ahead in most national polls pitting her against Trump — as well as against Johnson and Stein — in the race for the U.S. presidency. But the race has tightened to the point where the generally respected election forecasting site FiveThirtyEight.com lowered her predicted probability of winning to just 64 percent.
To put that another way, Trump’s chances are better than one out of three.
Who do you expect will win the presidential election? Take the poll above on this page to make your opinion known.
[Featured Images By Gene J. Puskar/Evan Vucci/Associated Press]