Donald Trump has been trailing Hillary Clinton in the national polls almost during the entire course of Elections 2016. Analysis of all of the recent polls in Elections 2016 shows that this trend five days before Election Day has not changed much, although the gap between Trump and Hillary Clinton is tightening. The Washington Post reports that even so, “For Trump to win, an awful lot would have to go right.”
The Washington Post also reports that some of the things Donald Trump needs to go right are happening. While many are chalking up the tightening of the polls to the recent letter introduced to Congress by FBI Director James Comey, The Washington Post reports that the gap is tightening closer to Election Day is normal and happens during every election cycle. The change is not likely related to last week’s FBI bombshell.
Election Project and Project 538 confirm this, saying that after Donald Trump’s call for people to change their votes in light of the bombshell, nobody did.
A look at poll comparisons between this election and 2012, shows that Hillary Clinton has maintained a steadier and wider lead in this election than Barack Obama did in 2012.
Washington Post chalks the tightening gap of recent polls up to the fact that many Republicans that once said they would never vote for Donald Trump are beginning to reverse their decision to prevent Hillary Clinton from taking the White House. Despite this, all numbers from the most recent election polls still reflect the electoral college is still leaning in Hillary Clinton’s favor, although it is reportedly going to be a tight race come Election Day.
Donald Trump’s good points this week occurred in the states of Ohio and Iowa where he began to pick up steam. For Hillary Clinton, early voting suggests she maintains a strong lock on women and the Hispanic vote, and it could be these two demographics combined that put her over the edge on Election Day.
The Washington Post says that as the national race tightens, so do the races in the battleground states. Hillary Clinton is currently leading in four of 10 battleground states reports Washington Post, while Donald Trump leads in the remaining six. But the states that Hillary leads in are the ones with the most electoral college votes and would still put Donald Trump eight electoral college votes behind Hillary Clinton come Election Day.
Donald Trump’s path to the necessary 270 electoral college votes is tough, but not impossible. He needs Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio to win, and he needs all three. Hillary Clinton could afford to lose one, or even all of these states, and still win the election if she maintains her lead in the remaining battleground states.
Washington Post reports that Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral college votes, is also an important state for Donald Trump. Project Five Thirty Eight says that Florida and Pennsylvania are crucial “tipping points” for Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton currently leads Donald Trump by four points in Pennsylvania, according to Policy Mic. Policy Mic also says that she leads Donald Trump for Florida’s 29 electoral college votes, as well with 49 percent to his 47 percent.
Washington Post reports that a four-point-lead for Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania is “not unassailable” for Donald Trump, but he has only led in one poll in that state since May. A Quinnipiac University poll gives Hillary Clinton an even wider lead in Pennsylvania with a five-point-lead over Donald Trump.
In North Carolina, the race for North Carolina’s 15 electoral college votes tightens for Hillary Clinton. The most recent Quinnipiac University poll has Hillary Clinton three points ahead of Donald Trump. Washington Post says Donald Trump has only led in North Carolina in two polls since the first Presidential debate.
CTV News reports that in both North Carolina and Florida, early voting suggests that these two states are currently favoring Democrats by a fairly large margin. CTV reports that more than half of the state has already voted in North Carolina, and Democrats lead in early ballots requested with 43 percent of ballots requested by Democrats to 32 percent of the ballots requested by Republicans. Women voters also appear to be up in North Carolina, according to Election Project.
Wisconsin’s 10 electoral college votes are also important for Donald Trump. Here he trails behind Hillary Clinton by six points, according to polling by Marquette Law, which is described as a poll that “holds a lot of clout” by Policy Mic News. Here, Hillary Clinton has 46 percent of the poll to Donald Trump’s 40 percent.
Exactly one week before Election Day, Project 538 had Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida all leaning blue, and gave Hillary Clinton a 76 percent chance of winning the election.
Florida is a coveted state for both candidates with 29 electoral college votes. Donald Trump can’t win without it. Hillary Clinton could, but she would like, of course, the insurance policy of a win in Florida all the same. The Quinnipiac University poll shows this state is a dead heat with Hillary Clinton one point ahead of Donald Trump.
Washington Post reports that a CNN poll has Hillary Clinton ahead by two points in Florida. The Washington Post report suggests Florida is the state to watch come Election Day. Without it, for Donald Trump, Washington Post says for Donald Trump, “the race is over.”
There is good news for Hillary Clinton out of Florida when it comes to early voters. Heavy reports that Hillary Clinton has maintained her lead with women nationally. Heavy also reports that 4.5 million early votes have been cast in Florida and that 55 percent of those were women, and 60 percent of those were registered Democrats.
These are all things that Donald Trump can not change at this point, but he does have some strengths in the polls. A Nate Silver blog projection previously reported on by the Inquisitr held that in Ohio, the candidates were in a dead heat as of this past Saturday. Since then, however, the numbers have tipped in Donald Trump’s favor, and he is currently ahead five points in Ohio in the new Quinnipiac University poll, reports the Washington Post.
It has been his strongest of the three must-win states consistently, but with only 18 electoral college votes, Ohio will not be the state that determines this election reports Washington Post. Arizona is another state considered a strength for Donald Trump, and the CNN poll has him leading by five points there as well and poised to take Arizona’s 11 electoral college votes.
He has not held a consistent lead in Arizona over the election, and Hillary Clinton held a lead there as recently as two weeks ago. However, his lead in the polls is matched by a lead in early voting, according to CTV News. CTV News says the Democrats trail by five percent in early voting in Arizona.
Hillary Clinton has also lost her lead in the polls for Nevada’s six electoral votes, where she trails Donald Trump by six points, according to the Washington Post. However, Trump leads in polls of voters who have not voted yet. Her numbers appear to be up and ahead of Donald Trump in people that have already voted with early ballots.
CTV News reports that early ballots in Nevada are showing a strong start for Democrats. This is confirmed by Election Project that says, “Trump needs a big turnaround here.”
CTV News chalks this lead up to the Latino vote and reports that this may be the demographic that puts her over the edge come Election Day. Approximately half of the ballots have already been cast in Nevada, and the Democrats lead in this area with 43 percent of early ballots cast vs. the Republicans with 37 percent.
CTV News reports that the race for Colorado shows a similar lead for Democrats, with Democrat ballots being returned at 37 percent to Republicans 35 percent. CTV News also says that at this point in 2012, Republicans held the edge here for Colorado’s 9 electoral college votes.
[Featured Image by David Goldman/AP Images]