With a population less than 1/6th of New York City, this tiny, unassuming state in New England has the potential to swing the entire 2016 presidential election with their vote. Though New Hampshire has just four electorate votes in the general election, the 1.327 million residents could tip the election in either direction. In fact, with all current polling taken into account, it is New Hampshire that could ensure that neither candidate gets the 270 needed to win the election.
Real Clear Politics‘s “no toss up” map on November 2, 2016, shows that if all swing states were given to the current polling winner, Hillary Clinton would have 273 electoral votes and Donald Trump would have 265.
With the accuracy of the polls deemed reliable, this would mean that the election will be won by a razor-thin margin, hardly the “landslide victory” that many Democrats were hoping for this election. However, there are a number of things that could potentially swing the election out of the reaches of Clinton and allow the Republican underdog the comeback he needs to secure the presidency.
The first probable scenario revolves around the state of New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton once held a commanding lead in the “live free or die” state, but in recent weeks, the lead has diminished to the point that the state has now been deemed a “toss up.” While Clinton currently leads 4.7 points when all polls are considered, the margin is getting smaller and smaller in the days leading up to the election.
In fact, one New Hampshire poll by the New Hampshire Journal/Inside Sources indicates that Trump now has a +2 point lead over Clinton. In other polls, the race is also tightening; the Emerson poll shows Clinton with a +3 lead. This three point lead is within the poll’s margin of error, which was noted as +/- 3.9 percentage points.
#NEW New Hampshire, Journal Poll:
Trump 45 (+2)
Stein 2 https://t.co/yoEu01ygBs
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2016
Therefore, with trends showing in Trump’s favor in New Hampshire, things could certainly swing allowing Trump to win New Hampshire on November 8. So what would happen to the electorate map above if New Hampshire was taken by Trump?
As you can see above, if all other polling is accurate and just New Hampshire flipped to Trump, no single candidate would have the 270 needed to win the election outright. Therefore, according to the Federal Registrar, if no single candidate gets the 270 majority needed to secure the election, the House will vote and determine the next POTUS.
“If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most Electoral votes. Each state delegation has one vote.”
As currently seated, the Republican party has the House majority which means an almost certain victory for Trump should the House be presented with the opportunity to select the next president. This means that with 269 electorate votes and majority vote from the House, Trump would be the next President of the United States of America in big part thanks to voters in New Hampshire.
The LA Times polls have also showcased that Hillary Clinton’s landslide victory is looking a lot less likely. The most recently LA Times polls indicate that Trump has a +1.7 lead over Clinton nationally. The LA Times notes that the poll involves 3000 American citizens and that results typically lag by several days when new information is released about candidates. Therefore, with Clinton’s email troubles resurfacing and some questioning her ability to serve due to looming FBI investigations, it is unclear if that lag will have an even more negative effect on Clinton’s polling numbers leading into the final week of the election season.
“The USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Poll asks roughly 3000 American citizens each day about the presidential race in order to reflect the political pulse of the country. Results lag events by several days.”
What do you think about the recent polling shift giving Trump a boost leading into the final week of the 2016 general election season? Do you think Trump can pull off a victory on November 8? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.
[Featured Image by Evan Vucci/AP Photo]