Republican nominee for president of the United States Donald Trump continues to trail Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, but things have gotten much closer over the past few days.
“From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant, given the sample size.”
Since the poll’s margin of sampling error is three percentage points, Clinton losing three points is considered within the margin of error. That means her support has not significantly changed. Trump’s gain of seven percentage points is outside the margin of error, which means that his support has increased over the past few days.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll is conducted over the phone and contains a random national sample of 1,148 likely voters. The sample included 37 percent Democrats and only 29 percent Republicans. The remaining 29 percent was made up of independents.
On October 22, Clinton held a 12-point lead over Trump, which was her largest in this particular poll in months. While it appeared as though she would continue to increase her lead, more voters are turning to Trump. Since the results were collected before Friday’s announcement by the FBI, that should not be considered a factor for Trump’s recent surge.
The FBI’s recent announcement that they will investigate more emails could turn even more voters to Trump. It is unknown whether or not the emails are significant, but this is just another example of Clinton being involved in a controversy — and that is not what Americans want in the next president of the United States.
While Clinton has her faults, and there are many, Trump is not exactly the ideal candidate. In addition to making controversial statements pertaining to minorities and Islam, Trump’s lack of experience is a concern for many voters. The recent sexual assault allegations have also harmed the Republican nominee’s reputation, and he has lost support among women, according to various polls.
One such poll is the Reuters/Ipsos poll, which measures favorability for each candidate. According to their latest results, which were released late Friday night, Clinton is leading Trump 42 points to 36 points. The poll was conducted from Oct. 21-27 and included 1,627 likely voters based on voting history, registration status, and intention to vote. It has a measure of accuracy of three percentage points.
“The Oct. 21-27 opinion poll shows 42 percent of people who either voted already or expect to vote in the Nov. 8 election support Clinton, versus 36 percent for Trump. Clinton’s lead a week ago was 4 points. The polling was conducted before Clinton’s campaign was hit on Friday by the FBI announcement that it was investigating more emails as part of a probe into her use of a private email server while secretary of state.”
As with the ABC News/Washington Post poll, this one was conducted before the FBI’s announcement. While Clinton holds a larger lead in this poll, it is likely going to diminish when the next results are released.
Trump is still struggling to gain support from women voters. Clinton’s current lead of 10 points over Trump among women voters is up from last week’s result. With more allegations coming out weekly, Clinton’s lead among women voters could continue to increase.
Even with Clinton’s ongoing problems with the FBI, it is unlikely that it is going to be enough to sway the number of voters that Trump needs. While neither candidate is particularly liked among the American public, one of them is going to become the next president of the United States, and it is most likely going to be Hillary Clinton.
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