Democratic presidential nominee and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton currently leads Republican business magnate Donald J. Trump in national poll averages tracked by Real Clear Politics by 6.1 percent, with each garnering 48.0 and 41.9 percent of voter support respectively. One recent ABC News Tracking poll gives Clinton a 12-percent lead.
Presidential odds-maker FiveThirtyEight currently gives Hillary Clinton an 85.4 percent chance at taking the presidency, down slightly from figures reported over the weekend, as featured by the Inquisitr. Donald Trump is seen having a 14.6 percent chance of an election win.
With the latest polls, Clinton, Trump, and conservative Evan McMullin are the only candidates with convincing chances of winning the election in individual states. Nationally, Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson currently hold 2.3 and 5.9 percent of voter support in Real Clear Politics averages. McMullin’s national numbers are not reported.
In Utah, latest polls show Donald Trump with 30.7 percent of voter favor, leading Evan McMullin and Hillary Clinton, who are each tied with 25.2 percent of support, as reported by Real Clear Politics.
Currently, Real Clear Politics is calling the presidential race a “toss up” in battleground swing states Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa, Minnesota, Maine’s second congressional district, and Texas.
FiveThirtyEight gives finer granularity, forecasting Clinton wins in Arizona, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa, Minnesota, and Maine. The presidential odds-maker currently sees Trump winning Georgia and Texas.
Arizona poll averages have Clinton ahead of Trump, 41.8 to 40.5 percent. Nevada poll averages have Clinton leading Trump, 45.5 to 41.3 percent. In Texas poll averages, Trump leads Clinton, 43.6 to 38.8 percent. In Florida averages, Clinton leads Trump, 47.0 to 43.2 percent. Voters favor Trump over Clinton 46.3 to 42.3 percent in Georgia. In key battleground state Ohio, Clinton leads Trump 46.1 to 44.0 percent. Clinton leads Trump, 46.1 to 44.0 percent in North Carolina. Trump leads Clinton 41.7 to 38.0 percent in Iowa. Clinton leads Trump in Minnesota, 44.3 to 40.0 percent, as reported by Real Clear Politics.
FiveThirtyEight is forecasting that the Democratic Party will take control of the U.S. Senate. The election analysts currently give the Democrats a 69.5 percent chance of taking control of the Senate; Republicans are seen with a 30.5 percent chance at maintaining their current control.
Last week, the Inquisitr reported on the reaction of the shares of PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL), Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB), and Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) seemingly with an increased perception of certainty of a Hillary Clinton win, trading up sharply over recent market sessions. FB shares have continued to new high ground once again today, while NFLX and PYPL stock has pulled back marginally, still holding the majority of recent gains.
Between them, the three firms employ 34,395 people and have combined annual revenues of $40.76 billion.
Nate Silver with FiveThirtyEight has expressed concerns with the showing of Donald Trump in the latest polls — Trump may be falling farther and farther behind Clinton in real voter support — that conservatives may simply sit this election out, which he sees as being a “disaster” for the party.
“Clinton’s 12-point lead in that poll is toward the high end of a broad range of results from recent national polls, with surveys showing everything from a 15-point Clinton lead to a 2-point Trump edge. But the ABC News poll is interesting given its recency and given why Clinton has pulled so far ahead in it — Republicans aren’t very happy with their candidate and may not turn out to vote,” the FiveThirtyEight founder writes.
Silver goes on to suggest that the true margin between Clinton and Trump may be closer to 7 percent, rather than the double-digit lead being shown by some pollsters and that based on historical models “tightening” of the race could be expected as election day approaches.
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