Republican nominee for president of the United States Donald Trump continues to surge in the polls against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project results that were released on Saturday morning. The poll is done online and takes replies from 15,000 people per week. In order to get more accurate results, it also analyzes voting patterns under various election scenarios.
Clinton still has a 60 percent chance to win the election by 18 electoral votes, but this figure has been dropping dramatically over the past few weeks. As the Inquisitr reported last week, Clinton had an 83 percent chance of winning the election by 47 votes in the Electoral College. In August, Clinton had a 95 percent chance of winning the election by 108 votes in the Electoral College.
While Clinton is still the projected winner, the race should continue to tighten up as November approaches. In last week’s report, Florida and Ohio were no longer considered guaranteed wins for Clinton. Today’s report shows that Trump is now the likely winner in Florida.
“An election analysis conducted in the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project shows that the race has tightened considerably over the past few weeks, with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump projected to win Florida, an essential battleground state, if the election were held today.”
In addition to Florida, Trump has also gained support in other key battleground states.
“The States of the Nation project, which delivers a weekly tally of support for the candidates in every state, shows that the race has tightened in several traditional battlegrounds. Pennsylvania has been moved from a likely win for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to a tossup; Ohio has been moved from a tossup to a likely win for Clinton. And Florida is now considered a likely win for the Republican nominee, with 50 percent support for Trump to 46 percent support for Clinton”
In a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll focusing on general support for each candidate, 42 percent of voters support Clinton while only 38 percent support Trump. While Reuters did not provide a detailed analysis for the latest results, this particular poll usually has a margin of sampling error of three percentage points. This means that Clinton’s lead of four points over Trump is outside of the margin of sampling error and puts her in the lead.
Clinton has led in this particular poll for the majority of the past year. Trump gained the lead after the Republican National Convention, but Clinton quickly regained it after the Democratic National Convention. Throughout much of the summer, Clinton held a double-digit lead over Trump. From the week of Aug. 26 to Sept. 1, Trump actually led Clinton 40 percentage points to 39 percentage points. While Clinton is back on top, it should remain close as the first debate approaches.
While Trump is regularly labeled as a racist and a bigot by numerous media outlets, Clinton is not exactly the most beloved candidate either. In addition to the recent email scandal, questions have arisen regarding her ability to handle important classified information. Both candidates have been accused of being liars, and neither of them has the support that other candidates have had in the past.
A concerning 20 percent of likely voters do not support Clinton or Trump to become the next president. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are next on the list after Clinton and Trump, but neither of them has a realistic chance of winning the election. In 2012, only 10 percent of likely voters did not support Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in the middle of September. With less than two months to go until the election, it is unlikely that either candidate will be able to drastically change the American public’s opinion of them.
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