Donald Trump’s performance in New York is not what he seemed to be anticipating. In February, CNN cited him as saying that he’d win Michigan, New York, and “states that Republicans don’t even think of.”
Expressing his confidence that he would win the Empire State, Donald Trump told Jake Tapper, “I will have a chance of winning New York. If I win New York, the election’s over, OK, from an electoral college standpoint… Upstate New York, I’m like the most popular person that’s ever lived, virtually. They’re great friends of mine. And we will do very well in New York. I don’t know. Maybe win, maybe not. But we’re gonna come awfully close to winning, and I think we have a great chance.”
If this morning’s poll numbers are any indication, Donald Trump may be a little off on those statements.
Politico is reporting that the latest Siena Research Institute poll shows Clinton with a large lead over Donald Trump in New York. The poll indicates that among the registered voters in New York with whom the institute spoke, given an election with Clinton and Trump as their choices, only 27 percent would vote for Donald Trump, while 57 percent would vote for Clinton. If a third-party candidate is added to the mix, the spread decreases a bit, but not much. Given three choices, among those polled, only 25 percent would vote for Donald Trump, whereas 50 percent would vote for Clinton.
The New York Daily News is reporting that the poll also indicates that only 26 percent of the state’s registered voters said they believe that Donald Trump is more qualified to be president than Hillary Clinton. By comparison, 66 percent of the same voters said they believe Clinton is more qualified than Donald Trump.
Steven Greenburg, of the Siena Research Institute, said, “Despite Trump’s claims to carry New York, the Empire State seems firmly planted on the blue side of the map, as Clinton holds a commanding 30-point lead in a head-to-head matchup and a similarly strong 25-point, two-to-one lead in a four-way matchup. New Yorkers have voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections and there does not appear to be a real threat to end that streak.”
There really was no good news for Donald Trump with this latest poll. His favorability rating dropped to an all-time low of 24 percent, which means that his unfavorable rating rose to 76 percent. The favorability rating of his opponent, on the other hand, increased to 51 percent with 46 percent finding her unfavorable.
Politico also spoke with polling experts who said that Donald Trump is running out of time to turn the polls around. University of Texas professor Christopher Wlezian co-authored the book titled The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter. He told Politico that the person leading in the polls post-conventions has won the popular vote in the last 16 elections. Pressure has been put on Reince Priebus and the RNC in recent weeks to divert financial support away from Donald Trump and to down-ticket candidates. The RNC has said that if they made a decision to do that, it wouldn’t be until late September/early October. Wlezian says that would likely be too late.
“Wlezian predicted if Clinton holds onto her current margin over Trump after just one more week of polling — making it three weeks since the Democratic convention — she would have a nearly 90 percent chance of winning the election, based on past campaigns.”
He says that most voters make up their minds around and immediately after party conventions. Most don’t change their minds after that.
The site also points out, however, that this is based on past elections, and the race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is unique, with many voters choosing the candidate they dislike the least rather than the one they strongly support.
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