Presidential Polls: Trump Tanks In Swing States, Clinton Could Cruise To White House If Trends Continue

Donald Trump is fading fast in state-by-state polls against his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, in the race for the White House, according to a new set of polls from Quinnipiac University. Polling averages also show Clinton leading in the important swings states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. The Quinnipiac polls released on Tuesday should serve only to strengthen her hold on those states.

The Quinnipiac polls show Hillary Clinton with a healthy lead of eight percentage points in Florida, 47-39, as well as a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, 42-41. She is tied with Donald Trump at 40-40 in Ohio.

The Ohio poll erases what had been a four-point lead for Trump in the last Quinnipiac poll taken in the state on May 10. The Florida poll expands Clinton’s lead by seven points, while the Pennsylvania poll shows the same margin as in a May Quinnipiac survey.

According to Quinnipiac polling official Peter Brown, Trump’s fade may be the result of his recent comments assailing a federal judge, Gonzalo Curiel, who is presiding over a lawsuit against Trump’s business venture, Trump University, a real estate seminar that the lawsuit plaintiffs claim was nothing but a scam on Trump’s part.

Trump attacked Curiel as biased because Curiel, as Trump put it, is “Mexican.” Trump has also campaigned on the promise to build a massive border wall to keep Mexican immigrants out of the United States. The statements were widely criticized as “racist.” In fact, Curiel is American and was born in Indiana.

In each of the three swing states, voters questioned in the poll also said that they felt Trump’s verbal assault on the judge was “racist.”

Not everyone accepts the results of the Quinnipiac polls, however. In the following video, political scientist and election expert Larry Sabato discusses his criticisms of the new Trump vs. Clinton polls.

Sabato’s criticisms notwithstanding, the Quinnipiac results fall in line with the trends reflected in averages of all polls in those swing states, which are must-wins for both Clinton and Trump.

According to the Huffington Post polling average in Florida, Hillary Clinton holds a lead of 2.2 percentage points over Donald Trump, and has led in every Florida poll taken since March, pitting the two presidential candidates against each other, except for two.

And, in those two polls that showed Trump leading Florida, he held a lead of only a single point.

With 270 Electoral College votes required to win the presidency, Florida, with 29 of those votes, is one of the most important of the 50 states for a presidential candidate to win.

Ohio, with its 18 votes, and Pennsylvania with 20 votes are also key states that can “swing” either to Democrats or Republicans in the presidential election.

According to the average, Hillary Clinton holds a 3.1 point lead over Donald Trump there. In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads Trump by 3.4 percentage points, 42.7 – 39.3, and has trailed Trump in only one poll of 10 taken since September of last year in Pennsylvania.


According to Brown, in addition to the “racist” comments made by Donald Trump, the Republican nominee’s seemingly constant squabbling with other high-ranking Republicans may also be causing him to wear out his welcome with voters.

“The at-times bitter verbal battles between Trump and some Republicans leaders is showing in these numbers,” Brown said. “In these three key states, Clinton is doing better, and in the case of Florida much better, among Democrats than Trump is among Republicans. Traditionally GOP presidential candidates score better on this party loyalty test.”

According to the election-tracking site Election Graphs, which uses its own polling averages to determine who leads in each of the 50 states, Hillary Clinton is leading polls in enough states to give her 338 electoral votes compared to just 200 for Donald Trump. Her new gains in swing states appear to make her path to the White House even more clear.

[Photos by John Locher/Associated Press, J.D. Pooley/Getty Images]