Hillary Clinton Polls: Clinton Could Be Headed To Big Win In Oregon, Effectively Ending The Race For Bernie Sanders

Nathan Francis

Hillary Clinton may have a big surprise coming up this week with polls from Oregon showing her ahead in a state many thought would be a cake walk for Bernie Sanders.

Desperately needing momentum in his bid to pull off an upset in the Democratic primary, Sanders has been looking to Oregon as a chance to take a big chunk out of Clinton's delegate lead. It is a progressive state with demographics favorable to Sanders, and he has drawn some huge crowds during his campaigning there.

"It felt like this is Bernie Sanders country," said pollster John Horvick (via the Los Angeles Times).

Supporters of Bernie Sanders believed the same way with many rallying to reach voters through phone banking in an effort to give Sanders a big win, hoping to be by 20 points or more.

But, the polls don't reflect that. Horvick's firm, DHM Research, showed that Hillary Clinton is actually leading Bernie Sanders and by a margin of 15 points. The poll had Clinton ahead 48 percent to 33 percent.

Horvick acknowledged that the results may be an outlier, noting that a big turnout among young voters could certainly sway the race to Sanders. He also noted a big shift within Oregon in the last few weeks with 65,000 voters changing their registration from unaffiliated to Democrat to vote in Tuesday's closed primary, which could be a big boost to Sanders.

"Oregon has a closed primary, meaning only registered Democrats can vote, and Sanders hasn't won a closed primary yet in this campaign. Older voters are much more likely than their younger counterparts to be registered with a party, and they're more likely to favor Clinton, giving her an edge.

"In addition, Horvick's team calculated a second set of numbers based on a potential turnout where young voters and new voters cast ballots in higher numbers than normal.

"Even then, Clinton had a lead that exceeded the margin of error, 45% to 38%."

"In addition, Horvick's team calculated a second set of numbers based on a potential turnout where young voters and new voters cast ballots in higher numbers than normal.

"Even then, Clinton had a lead that exceeded the margin of error, 45% to 38%."

Sanders has pitched his strength in national polls against Donald Trump, as polls have shown him consistently leading the presumptive GOP candidate by larger margins than Hillary Clinton. His campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, notes that there would be a contested convention this summer where the Democratic Party would have to decide "if they want the candidate with the momentum who is best positioned to beat [presumptive Republican nominee Donald] Trump," or if they would "roll the dice" with a candidate whom he said would only "protect the status quo."

[Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images]

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