Bernie Sanders could still win the Democratic nomination. While it is true that in the Republican primary, candidates faced a situation where there were not enough delegates for the other candidate to win and Donald Trump had nearly enough, that is not the case with the Democratic primaries. Democrats have about twice as many delegates, so a 300-delegate lead is not as significant as it is for Republicans. There are still 926 more assignable delegates and 712 superdelegates. Bernie still has a good chance at the nomination in light of recent developments.
Hillary Clinton’s superdelegates don’t count until the convention despite the insistence of news broadcasters to treat them like they are already committed. Those commitments are completely intangible. Clinton knows that fact better than anyone. She had the support of many superdelegates early in the 2008 race, but they switched to Obama when the time came. Superdelegates don’t get to vote until the first vote of the convention. They can change their mind at any time before then. They can’t really be committed despite any agreement they may have previously avowed.
Bernie Sanders needs a total of 2,382 delegates to win. These can be either delegates or superdelegates. Sanders has 1,415 won delegates and Hillary Clinton has 1,705, according to Real Clear Politics. That is a difference of only 290. Sanders needs 967 delegates to win the nomination, and those can come from superdelegates as well as from won delegates. Mrs. Clinton needs another 677 to win. It is unlikely that either candidate will be able to accumulate enough won delegates considering the close races between Hillary and Bernie, and thus it will be a combination of delegates and superdelegates that make a decision at the convention and not before. Nothing is guaranteed to Hillary any more than to Bernie.
Bernie Sanders is not intimidated by Clinton’s enormous lead because it really only amounts to a lead of 290 delegates, coupled with the idea that the superdelegates will prefer Hillary over Bernie. That may have been true six months ago, but by June, they could shift their opinion. Sanders has performed increasingly well in polls, caucuses, and primaries, and unlike Mrs. Clinton, there are no scandals or investigations dogging Sanders.
Hillary Clinton has a so-called commitment from 532 superdelegates while Sanders has only 39, however, there are 712 total superdelegates. That means 150 have not committed to Sanders or Clinton and are still in play. It is therefore mathematically possible for Bernie to win the nomination at the convention, and it is doubtful that Hillary will walk into the convention with enough won delegates to make her candidacy a certainty. It all depends on the first vote of the convention.
Bernie Sanders is not disadvantaged in the later primaries at all. He has had some wins and minor losses in very close elections. He has more dedicated supporters, and his popularity with the young people of this country has been noted. These young people are ready to campaign heavily in the remaining states. He has proven he can overcome Clinton’s reputation and her superior media attention with old-fashioned efforts from young supporters ready to canvas neighborhoods and push up his message onto social media.
Hillary Clinton has a lot of problematic issues to be considered by the people of California, Oregon, New Jersey, and other states with primaries yet to vote. Those same issues will be considered by superdelegates regardless of any commitments they have made earlier in the primary process. Her FBI investigation is no longer just about email, according to RT. Hillary allegedly received financial gifts for the Clinton Foundation while serving as Secretary of State. The FBI intends to investigate her money as well as her email. Further, her deleted emails have been recovered, and the FBI is currently sifting through them.
If Bernie Sanders doesn’t take advantage of Hillary’s FBI investigation situation, it is certain that Donald Trump will. Unless and until the FBI clears Hillary of all wrongdoing, the investigation could remain a sword of Damocles over her bid for the presidency and perhaps beyond into her presidency should she win. That is something superdelegates will consider as a close examination by the FBI could certainly reveal any number of issues and scandals, according to the Atlantic.
Bernie Sanders could look a lot more attractive to superdelegates than Hillary Clinton by June.
[Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images]