Starting In West Virginia, Bernie Sanders Could Win 8 Of The Next 9 Primaries
Bernie Sanders is enjoying some of the best prediction math he’s seen all year. And it is exactly in line with what his campaign has been promising.
Nine Democratic contests are coming up, starting with West Virginia on May 10, a few on May 17, and followed by what Bernie would call a “yuge” day on June 7 — when voters from six states head to the polls.
Poll sources are already conceding that Sanders is likely to win five of the primaries — some by blowouts — and three more are within range, with Sanders steadily climbing in the polls the way that he has done before many of his come-from-behind primary victories.
In fact, the polls in those three states where Bernie is closely trailing are already within a range that have preceded Bernie Sanders’ wins, given the trend of the polling organizations to often under-predict his performance.
The only serious problem in this bunch of nine is New Jersey.
Sanders and his campaign team have been telling reporters for some time that these states would respond favorably to Sanders. Two months and many primaries ago, Sanders’ Campaign Manager Jeff Weaver confidently told CBS, “We will stop Hillary.”
This good news for Bernie can be found online, from sources such as Election 2016, Primary Results and Predictions, which gathers information from the Associated Press.
Here are the numbers, state-by-state.
In West Virginia on May 10, Bernie Sanders is headed for the first place finish, as he is polling ahead by six points.
In Oregon on May 17, Sanders is likely to enjoy a blow-out win. With momentum still gaining in that state, his lead over Clinton is a solid 23 percentage points.
Oregon is feeling the Bern!! ? pic.twitter.com/E5MFoMLa1F
— Eliot Bald (@EliotNikolas) April 28, 2016
A current double-digit lead carries Sanders into Montana, and this primary doesn’t happen for another month, on June 7. Bernie dominates in Montana polls with 12 percent over Clinton.
North Dakota voters are apparently feeling the Bern, with polls showing an early, “yuge” lead for Sanders of 16 points.
South Dakota is following suit, with 10 percent more voters polled declaring support for Bernie.
Sanders is gaining on Clinton in Kentucky, California, and New Mexico.
In Kentucky, Bernie is polling at 45 percent and Clinton at 55 percent. There is still another week before this May 17 primary, and Sanders has certainly gone on to win primaries in states where polling put him in this position a week out.
Only nine points separate Clinton from Sanders in California, as Bernie has demolished Clinton’s previous 63-point lead there. Sanders speaks to Sacramento voters on May 10 and Stockton voters on May 11 in rallies that are generating a lot of excitement. California doesn’t vote for another month, on June 7.
NEW: Danny Glover to introduce Bernie Sanders in Sacramento https://t.co/OwakF4GRur
— Christopher Cadelago (@ccadelago) May 9, 2016
Likewise, Sanders has deflated Clinton’s lead in New Mexico to nine points, and with this primary also not happening until June 7, Bernie still has plenty of time to climb in those polls.
The remaining state of New Jersey presents the only major problem for Sanders. This June 7 primary is closed, meaning that only registered democrats can vote. Registered Independents, a large cohort of Sanders’ supporters, will be excluded from this primary.
Polling in New Jersey indicates that Clinton is leading Sanders by 23 percentage points.
Interestingly, only one state has been correct about voting for the eventual democratic nominee every single time in the last 50 years. That state is Kansas.
Which way did it go this year? Suffice to say, the results were “yuge,” with the winner crushing the loser by 35 percentage points.
If Sanders pulls off this May-June winning streak, he would have a strong finish before the Democratic Convention, as discussed in a related Inquisitr story.
With both the math and the momentum on his side, Bernie Sanders could win eight of the next nine primaries, surprising some but confirming the predictions of Sanders and his campaign team.
[Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images]