A new poll suggests that Donald Trump is within three points of Hillary Clinton in a potential general election contest.
The results from a bipartisan George Washington University Battleground Poll indicating a virtual dead heat between the two front-runners run seem counter to recent polling data that suggests an uphill climb for the brash New York businessman, at least right now, six months out from Election Day.
The data, which may or may not be an outlier, also revealed that almost 90 percent of the voters are following developments in the presidential sweepstakes in the survey of 1,000 registered voters across the country, although many of them described the heated campaign rhetoric as “repulsive.”
Parenthetically, in past elections, it has often been pointed out that results can differ substantially when the screening is derived from likely voters rather than registered voters. Also, with surveys all over the map and differences in methodology, some pollsters could be orchestrating findings that fit within preconceived ideological notions or outcomes or to the benefit of which entity is footing the bill for the data collection.
Rightly or wrongly, Democrats, the #neverTrump GOP establishment, pro-Ted Cruz conservative journalists, and others seem to have convinced themselves — at least based on their public commentary — that Trump, who is the presumptive Republican nominee, can’t win against Democrat Clinton, who is currently favored to win her party’s nomination for president.
“In a head-to-head matchup of each party’s frontrunner, Ms. Clinton leads Mr. Trump by only 3 percentage points nationally (46 to 43; 11 percent undecided). Comparatively, Mr. Sanders fares slightly better against Mr. Trump (51/40/10),” the GW poll claimed, however.
As with other polling, Trump, Clinton, and Ted Cruz continue to be very unpopular, based on the GW findings, with real estate mogul clocking in at 65 percent unfavorability to Clinton’s 56 percent and Cruz’s 55 percent. About two-thirds of those surveyed added that the country is heading in the wrong direction, with nearly three-fourths citing the down economy as their primary concern.
Did you see the #GWBattlegroundPoll on the @Drudge Report today? pic.twitter.com/aPibL1lSti
— GW Media Relations (@GWmedia) April 25, 2016
Commenting on this latest Donald Trump poll, GW Prof. Christopher Arterton noted that voters may have, in a sense, to pick their poison.
“There is bad news aplenty here for both parties. Voters are disheartened, discouraged about the future and disdainful of the leading candidates in both parties, On many important issues, the public seems to lean toward the Republican Party, setting the stage for an election that could go their way. But since the two candidates with the best chance of receiving the Republican nomination are viewed even more unfavorably at this point than Secretary Clinton, there’s a good chance we are headed into an election where voters will see their choice as between the lesser of two unhappy options.”
After his big win in New York, Donald Trump currently leads the GOP presidential field with 845 convention delegates to Ted Cruz’s 559, as the campaign moves into several perceived Trump-friendly states. A total of 1,237 delegates is required for the formal nomination for president on the GOP ticket, which will occur at the RNC convention in Cleveland this July.
Trump is expected to run up big margins in tomorrow’s primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, which should increase his momentum nationally.
Whether you are on or off the Trump train, as things stand now, Cruz has virtually no chance of winning any blue or purple state in the general election should he become the nominee through parliamentary maneuvering at the upcoming nominating convention. In contrast, Trump — like him or hate him — can put many East Coast and Midwest states into play for the GOP come November, if he’s the Republican standard-bearer.
Dilbert creator Scott Adams, who has repeatedly predicted a Trump landslide win in November (even though he doesn’t support the candidate on the issues), claims that “master persuader” Trump is pivoting to a third act that will lead to victory in election 2016, regardless of any polling data to date.
The third act also includes Trump’s prime-time interview with Megyn Kelly to air next month.
In an appearance on FNC today, long-time Democrat strategist Mary Ann Marsh challenged the conventional doom-and-gloom wisdom about the nontraditional Trump candidacy put forth by Trump foes on both sides of the aisle, The Daily Caller reported.
“Trump will be a very, very tough candidate in the general election. I would not want to run against Donald Trump because I think he’s the most dangerous candidate. Give me Ted Cruz give me John Kasich, give me any of the vanquished, they’re traditional politicians: easy to beat. And Ted Cruz in particular way outside the mainstream. Donald Trump, when you look at what he said, for example, the other day about the gender bill and using the bathrooms proves that point because he knows how to appeal now to not only libertarians but a lot of independents who would support that too.”
Apart from Donald Trump polls, the candidate himself is not a fan of rival John Kasich’s table manners, as the video clip below makes obvious.
During his many freewheeling, unscripted campaign rallies, Donald Trump has repeatedly remarked that he “hasn’t started” on Hillary Clinton yet, although he has recently nicknamed her “crooked Hillary.”
When it comes to Donald Trump polls, do you think that general election projections made in April convey sufficient accuracy or validity as to what will actually happen in the voting booth?
[Photo by Matt Slocum/AP]