With just one day to go, the 2016 New York primary polls are projecting clear Democratic and Republican victories for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Republican New York Primary Polls 2016
Released just a few days before New Yorkers vote, a CBS News/YouGov poll showed that the Republican primary will swing heavily in the Donald’s favor. In that survey, Trump snatched 54 percent of respondents’ support — more than 30 percentage points ahead of Ted Cruz and John Kasich, at 21 percent and 19 percent, respectively. Another poll from Optimus, with a commanding sample size of 14,000 likely voters, shows Donald coming in with 49 percent of the vote.
That slight lack of a simple majority in the poll might be just enough for his Republican rivals to walk away with a few delegates. New York’s primary can be winner-take-all if a single candidate snags 50 percent or more of the vote in every match-up. In the congressional districts where Trump doesn’t acquire 50 percent, one of each district’s three delegates will go to the runner-up. The same is true for the delegates allotted by the state, reported the Green Papers.
Therefore, wherever Donald hits 50 percent in the New York primary, all delegates go to him.
Democratic New York Primary Polls 2016
For Democrats, no such rules will come into play in the New York primaries. Although it will be an upset if Hillary loses, polls are showing her within a 10-percentage point advantage over Bernie Sanders. CBS News/YouGov’s numbers, the most recent to date, are showing exactly that: 53 percent for Clinton compared to 43 percent for Bernie. Furthermore, that poll had a sample size of more than 1,000 likely voters and a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
Most of the other polls released this month predict a similar outcome for the New York Democratic primary. One poll from NBC/WSJ/Marist last week gives Hillary an even sharper lead, with 57 percent of the vote to Sanders’ 40 percent.
It’s doubtful that either campaign is particularly surprised by the poll results. After all, the New York primary takes place where both Clinton and Donald beefed up the resumés that got them this far in the presidential race to begin with.
Still, all five remaining Democrats and Republicans dedicated a significant amount of time to campaigning in New York ahead of the primary. With two weeks separating it from the last election in Wisconsin, the contest is not only relatively isolated, it’s also pivotal to success in the rest of the race.
In Tuesday’s New York primary, Clinton and Bernie will be warring it out over 291 delegates, the second largest grab of the entire Democratic contest after California’s 548. Of that prize, 44 are super delegates, 40 of whom have polled for Hillary, reported the Green Papers.
For Republicans, New York is just as unmissable. While California, Texas, and Florida offer more, the three remaining GOP hopefuls certainly won’t be turning up their nose at the 95 delegates at stake on Tuesday.
Trump’s decisive lead in New York primary polls is likely unsurprising to those who have closely followed the race. Up until it became clear that throwing the state to the wayside wasn’t an option, Ted Cruz attempted to paint an unattractive link between Donald and New York in rural areas. Because of that, Ted was later poorly received while campaigning in the Bronx, and the strategy even had some accuse the candidate of anti-Semitism, including Fox and Friends host Geraldo Rivera.
“What you say in the matzah factory in Brooklyn is different from what you say in Iowa. That commercial in Iowa was meant to convey two messages. One was that Trump was not legit, that whatever Trump was saying now, he believed something else because he was from New York. The other was that what New York values represent something that is very different from the Evangelical Iowa voters that [Ted] was directing his message toward.”
Do you think the 2016 New York primary polls are accurately calling results for Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump?
[Photo by Skidmore, Owings and Merrill LLP via Getty Images]