Donald Trump is crushing polls for the Republican primary, riding a string of major victories and polling showing that he is well on the way to securing enough votes to avoid a brokered convention.
But beyond his coronation as the GOP’s pick for the 2016 election, Trump is showing some major problems that could put the Republican Party in serious trouble in November. He has consistently polled behind Hillary Clinton in hypothetical matchups for November, and even further behind Bernie Sanders (though the prospect of Sanders winning the nomination is growing more remote with every week).
As Washington Post noted, Donald Trump may not be able to bring in the Republicans in the “anyone-but-Trump” camp the way Barack Obama was able to pull in Hillary Clinton’s most ardent supporters in 2008. Citing a recent Quinnipiac University poll, the report found that there are a large number of Republicans and independent voters who can’t see themselves voting for Donald Trump in November.
“Almost three times as many Republicans say they’d never vote for Trump than Democrats say the same about Clinton.”
“What’s more, more than half of independents say they’d never vote for Trump compared to fewer than half who say that about Clinton. These figures, too, can/will/may change, but it suggests that the idea that Trump has opposition to his candidacy as deeply rooted as the support he’s enjoyed in the primaries isn’t far off-base. That Republicans may not come home for Trump the way they have for candidates in the past — or that Republicans may simply stay home more than Democrats.”
That could be a huge problem for Republicans, who could stand to lose the House and Senate to Democrats if a Trump ticket keeps conservative voters from coming to the polls.
A lot could still happen between now and November. After securing the nomination, Trump will inevitably move closer to the center as nearly all Republican candidates do after winning over the more right-leaning voters needed to win the primary. While it may not be enough to bring the most dedicated anti-Trump voters over to his side, it could win over some near the edges.
The most recent polls also don’t show the effect that the terrorist attack in Brussels had on Donald Trump’s support. Though he doesn’t have as much foreign policy experience as any of the other candidates, Trump has scored well on his approach to terrorism and ISIS, and a crisis like the attack this week could drive more support his way.
But polls show that Donald Trump’s problems will run very deep in November. He suffers from a wide and continually growing gender gap, The Intercept noted.
“Women dislike Trump with what’s likely a historically unique intensity for a national politician. Trump’s average net favorability among women over the past six weeks is minus 33 percent — far worse than the minus 2 percent net favorability among women for Marco Rubio or the minus 14 percent for Ted Cruz,” the report noted. “Likewise, in a poll taken just before the 2012 election, Mitt Romney had a net favorability among women of minus 2 percent.”
Those are not the only polls that appear troublesome to Donald Trump. Polls have shown that close to 80 percent of Latino voters have an unfavorable view, a situation that some experts say could put traditional Republican strongholds like Arizona in play for Democrats.
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