Idaho caucus polls for the 2016 Democratic race are practically non-existent, making the outcome of Tuesday’s primary basically unknown.
Only one major poll has been held for Democrats ahead of the Idaho caucus and it’s more than a month old, boasting a minimal sample size of just 99 likely voters.
On March 6, Idaho Politics Weekly published data collected by Dan Jones & Associates, the sole recent Idaho Democratic caucus poll. In the end, it showed a slight advantage of 2 percentage points for Bernie Sanders. However, supporters of Bernie shouldn’t get too excited over this figure. The margin of error in the poll was 9.9 percent, which will give plenty of room for Sanders’ 47 percent and Hillary Clinton’s 45 percent to slide around.
That’s not to say these numbers are all negative for Bernie. Between this Idaho caucus poll and the last one, Sanders gained 14 points against Hillary. That could indicate growing momentum for him within the state, the kind that he needs against Clinton on the path to the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.
Furthermore, that Idaho caucus poll turned out to be incorrect when it came to the Republican race. Taken just a few weeks ahead of the GOP contest, it called a 2016 victory for Donald Trump with 30 percent of the vote. While that was almost exactly the cut of votes that Donald picked up in Idaho, the pollster also called 19 percent for Ted Cruz, who ended up winning the state’s caucus with 45 percent. Nearly 20 percent of respondents at the time either didn’t know for whom they would vote or did not want to vote for any of the available candidates.
Apart from their lack of viability, the Idaho caucus polls are probably not being watched too closely by either Democratic candidate anyway. Idaho offers just 27 delegates, four of which are super delegates. It’s a paltry number that’s unlikely to tip the race either way, and as the delegates will be doled out proportionally, the poll is indicating they’ll be split evenly anyway.
The Bernie prognosis for Utah and Arizona’s primary races aren’t much better than the one projected by the Idaho caucus polls. While the Utah election is too close to call for either candidate, it’s almost sure that a Sanders victory won’t be decisive if he manages one at all. Trends in the polls do, however, seem to indicate that he has gained on Hillary there.
Arizona, on the other hand, looks more or less wrapped up for Clinton. Hillary more than doubles Bernie’s support in recent polls — which is even worse news for Sanders considering that it’s the only one of the three states up for Democratic vote on Tuesday that holds a sizable amount of delegates. It dwarfs the Idaho caucus’ 27 delegates with a notable 87 delegates, and Clinton’s commanding lead indicates that she’ll be taking home the vast majority of those, unless undecided voters strongly come out for Bernie.
Aside from Tuesday’s Idaho Democratic caucus, Republicans will also face off in Arizona and Utah. Polls are calling a win for Donald Trump in Arizona, while he’ll be obliterated by Ted Cruz in Utah partially due to a lack of connection with Mormon voters.
Do you have a prediction for Tuesday’s results based on the 2016 Idaho caucus polls? You can also check out the full Inquisitr‘s analysis for Arizona and Utah to get up-to-date on those races as well.
[Image via Loren Orr/Getty Images]