The Trump vs. Clinton polls are starting to trend more on online searches as the nation looks more closely at the probability of a Donald-Hillary standoff in November.
If you listen to Real Clear Politics, the outcome is not in question. Hillary Clinton will win by at least 6.3 percentage points — a relative landslide when it comes to how bitterly divided the nation currently is.
It is important to note that RCP takes the averages of multiple Trump vs. Clinton polls from other news sources and polling agencies.
Many of these sources have agendas of their own, and since the media skews liberal in representation, one should not expect the current GOP frontrunner to fare as well as the Democratic nominee.
But there is something badly wrong with RCP‘s methodology that needs to be pointed out — aside from where it sources the polls — and that is how it has the match-ups between other GOP candidates and Hillary Clinton.
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz from Texas beats Hillary by 0.8 percentage points — highly unlikely since Cruz is far too religious to pick up centrist and left-leaning states.
U.S. Senator Marco Rubio from Florida, who was beaten so badly last week that he had to withdraw from the race, is still up by 4.0 percentage points in a head-to-head with Clinton.
Yet the guy, who has captured more votes than Cruz, Rubio, and the rest of the now suspended GOP field loses by 6.3.
You don’t have to be a mathematician to see where that is a little “off.”
Furthermore, if you look at the head-to-head match-ups against Bernie Sanders, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, all three lose quite handily in spite of the fact that Bernie Sanders’ campaign is effectively over.
RCP would have you believe that Sanders, the guy losing badly to Hillary Clinton in his bid for the White House would blow out the GOP candidates in a head-to-head election while the woman who is mopping the floor with him, would lose to two of the three, who are in turn losing to the GOP frontrunner (and one of whom is already out of the race).
Any remaining questions as to why people don’t trust polls these days?
The reality in the Trump vs. Clinton polls is that the Donald is the probable frontrunner in the general election as much as Democrats would rather deny it, and it’s also probable that he will win in a landslide.
1. The RCP Trump vs. Clinton polls are between more established Democrats and Republicans.
In other words, there aren’t many, if any, Independents taking part in these polls, as they are mostly between established party respondents.
The fact that the pairing is as close as it is shows that respondents from the Democratic side lack enthusiasm for Hillary, while the GOP respondents are still clinging to the hope of a brokered convention.
When you factor in the 11.7 percentage points that aren’t accounted for — Clinton leads 47.3 to 41.0 — most of that would skew towards Trump, and the massive primary turnout for Republicans bears that out.
2. In keeping with voter enthusiasm, the RCP polls illustrate how disgusted many on the Democratic side are with Hillary.
If it is true that Sanders is the Democratic candidate to inspire Democratic voters as the polling would indicate, then the weak performance of Hillary in each of the three GOP pairings hints that her candidacy may keep many Democrats — namely Bernie supporters — indoors come November.
3. Republicans will not treat Trump with the same apathy that Democrats are showing Hillary.
This last point is something that doesn’t necessarily play out in the RCP Trump vs. Clinton polls, but if you’ve been politically aware since the 1990s, then you know that most true conservative Republicans hate Hillary Clinton more than they are fearful of Trump. That means, come November, the primary turnout breaking for Cruz and Rubio is more likely to show up and cast their Trump vote just to keep Clinton out of the White House.
Mix that up with disenfranchised Democratic voters, who see Clinton as just another puppet candidate and put more stock in Trump’s liberal past than his present conservatism, and you have the perfect storm for a Donald Trump White House.
Do you believe the Trump vs. Clinton polls are as flawed as they seem? Will Donald Trump be your next President of the United States? Sound off in the comments section.
[Image via Flickr Creative Commons / Gage Skidmore]