The Republican Party in Nevada holds its caucus on Tuesday night, and live results from the key contest will stream online and candidates Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz hope those results will show that they have made some progress as they pursue the GOP frontrunner, Donald Trump. But though polling is Nevada has been light, what data there is appears to indicate that Trump is headed for another, as he would say, “huge” night ending in his third straight victory.
Though the first three Republican primaries and caucuses drew large voter turnouts, a low turnout is expected in Nevada — possibly as few as 40,000 Republican caucus-goers could show up on Tuesday, according to political insiders. And with caucuses across the state with varying starting times — though all are required to end at 9 p.m. Pacific Time, midnight Eastern — the predicted chaos could throw a wrench into pollster predictions.
But a late surge in voter registrations could bode well for Trump, who has shown a remarkable ability to bring first-time voters to polling places. A larger than expected turnout would likely lead to a runaway Trump victory.
“You can’t talk any sense into the Trump voters; they can’t turn them,” Nevada political expert Jon Ralston told CNN. “When you’re hoping that those voters don’t turn out, you know that your campaign is playing for second place.”
The two most recent polls of Republicans in Nevada, both completed on February 15 more than a week before the state’s caucus night, show Trump with a wide lead. A Gravis poll shows the former reality TV star with a 16-point lead over second-place Ted Cruz, while a CNN poll puts Trump an astounding 26 points ahead of Cruz — with a remarkable 45 percent of the vote in that state.
How accurate are the polls? And even if they are accurate, have the political dynamics in Nevada shifted significantly over the past week? Not even seasoned political prognosticators are willing to speculate, but there’s only one way to find out.
That way is to watch a live stream of the Nevada caucus results, which are expected to come in shortly after 9 p.m. Pacific Time, midnight Eastern. To find out how to get results from the Nevada Republican caucus, streaming live on Tuesday, February 23, see the links and information at the bottom of this article. Or stay right on this page and watch coverage from ABC News Go in the video below.
An alternative live stream of Nevada caucus results can be viewed by playing the following video.
The confusion of the Republican Nevada caucuses is likely to cause a lingering controversy. As an aid in understanding how the event functions, watch the explanation in the following short video prepared by the Wall Street Journal.
The election-predicting site FiveThirtyEight, which uses a sophisticated statistical formula to calculate the probability of candidates to win elections, has figured out that Trump has a 64 percent probability of victory in Nevada. Marco Rubio, who finished a surprise second in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, is the second-most likely candidate to win in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight, with a 24 percent chance of winning, while Cruz has just an 11 percent chance.
The other two remaining candidates in the Republican race, Ohio Governor John Kasich and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, have what amounts to no chance at all, under the FiveThirtyEight formula.
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Live streaming feeds with commentary and immediate results from the cable news networks are also available online, though they require login credentials. Find the CNN feed at this link, MSNBC here at this link, and Fox News by clicking here. Or try this alternative link for live election results. For viewers who prefer their live streaming Republican Nevada caucus results and coverage without the bells and whistles of the commercial cable news networks, C-SPAN will offer coverage starting at 9 p.m. Pacific, midnight Pacific at this link.
[Featured Photo By Marcio Jose Sanchez / Associated Press]