Here’s Why The U.S. Is Still Very Much Alive In The World Cup
The U.S. team suffered a rough twist in Sunday night’s World Cup match against Portugal, ending with a tie after a very late goal.
But all is not lost! Because in the “Group of Death,” the Americans still have the upper hand.
The best-case scenario would have been a win, of course, since that would have clinched a spot in the next round. But the U.S. is still tied for the Group G lead with Germany, who it faces Thursday. Ghana and Portugal are also still alive, but the climb is a bit steeper for them since they’re sitting with just one point a piece right now.
If the U.S. does not lose Thursday — that is, if it beats or draws against Germany — it will advance. If the Americans lose, they’ll still move on to the knockout round if Portugal and Ghana tie or if the goal differential is in their favor. When it comes to goal differential, Portugal is in particularly bad shape because of their opening loss to Germany, a 4-0 drubbing.
Business Insider points to a “nightmare scenario” where the only way for the U.S. to advance is with goal differential greater than Ghana’s. This would come into play if Germany beats the U.S. in Thursday’s finale to the World Cup group stage, and Ghana takes down Portugal. Then, both the U.S. and Ghana would have 4 points.
How would this play out? BI’s Tony Manfred:
“In this scenario, if Ghana wins by more than one goal or the U.S. loses by more than one goal, Ghana would have a better goal differential and advance.
“If both teams have the same goal differential (for example, both teams would have a goal difference of 0 if the U.S. loses 1-0 and Ghana wins 1-0), then we go to the 2nd tiebreaker: goals scored.
“Right now the U.S. has scored 4 goals while Ghana has scored 3 goals.
If Ghana wins, say, 2-1 and the U.S. loses 1-0, Ghana would finish with 5 goals in the tournament to the U.S.’s 4, and Ghana would advance. So if the U.S. is going to lose to Germany, they’re better off doing it scoring a ton of goals.”
Unless the U.S. loses 1-0 Thursday and Ghana wins 1-0, in which case the U.S. advances because the goal differentials and scored are still tied. In that case, the U.S. took down Ghana in the first game so that breaks the tie. But it’s important to remember that head-to-head result is the third tiebreaker.
Got it?
The New York Times‘ David Leonhardt also made an interesting point about the incentives for both teams in the U.S.-Germany match:
“Intriguingly, the United States-Germany match will also feature something of a perverse incentive. If the two teams play a draw, they are both likely to be very happy. Germany would then win the group, and the United States would finish second, thus qualifying for the next round. If the United States and Germany are indeed tied well into the second half, it’s not hard to imagine the pace of play slowing down a bit.”
Here’s a handy interactive from The Times‘ The Upshot to help discern all the possibilities for the World Cup as it now stands.
In any event, Thursday should be a thrilling finish to what has been an exciting group stage in Brazil. The last two games for Group G will play concurrently at noon eastern on ESPN (U.S.-Germany) and ESPN2 (Ghana-Portugal).
If you’re a United States fan, you obviously want a win, tie, or Portugal win.
Of course, then you’d probably have to worry about the U.S. facing a very good Belgium in the World Cup’s knockout round.
