Well you’ve heard it folks – 2010 and beyond is going to be all about mobile computing. iPhones, iPods, iSlates, Nexus One’s and ChromeOS are going to rule. We can all start on plans to retire our desktops, laptops and anything else that can’t fit in your palm and of course it is all going to be rich video content.
This massive change of how we use computers will be riding on the waves of a media tsunami that Tom Foremski believes is headed our way.
We have all the elements in place for a media Tsunami. A giant wave of media of all types will wash over us.
And it won’t be all dross — there will be a huge amount of great media, great blog posts, great Tweets, great videos, great discussions, great music.
Needless to say this ties in perfectly with Don Dodge’s screed posted today where as far as he is concerned the desktop is dead and being replaced by a browser driven world inhabiting your cell phone.
The future of computing – Your cell phone will become your primary computer, communicator, camera, and entertainment device, all in one. The exciting new applications are running in the browser, with application code and data in the cloud, and the cell phone as a major platform.
Crikey what a wonderful world. We get to see what is happening in the world on a 2″ by 3″ screen. Ya that sounds really enjoyable. I want to squint even more than I already do to read some Twitter message or some news article behind a paywall. Oh wait I will also be able to watch my favorite television shows on it as well.
Please. Give me a break. I’m not suggesting that smartphones don’t; or won’t have their place but I’m sorry to suggest that our lives will be spent using an inferior phone platform for all our computing needs is the height of mainlining the kool-aid.
Will there be a day when the desktop, or laptop will be replaced by some other computing paradigm? sure there will but it’s not going to come in a 2″ by 3″ form factor.
But there is also another big bump in this road to our computing nirvana that both Dodge and Foremski; like a lot of the smartphone evangelists are ignoring.
And this is no minor roadblock either as they are already a major thorn in the side of any widespread adoption of mobile computing. I am of course referring to our various wireless broadband providers and the convoluted and expensive plans that lock you in for two years (or in Canada for three years). Sure you could take the unlocked in plans but that doesn’t change the cost of your monthly services – both voice and data.
All this on networks that even now can’t stand up under the strain of even 3% of the heaviest users. It is a situation that has been thrust into the forefront by people like Fake Steve Jobs (Dan Lyons) and now today Kara Swisher, who wrote
Of all the major issues to think about in the digital sector over the next year, perhaps the most important to focus on will be the mobile space.
That’s why the swirl of controversy around the inability of AT&T (T) to maintain a reliable network for users of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone–especially in New York and San Francisco–is perhaps the flashpoint story of the coming year.
It’s not only an appalling predicament for consumers who have paid for promised service and been denied it, as well as a future Harvard Business School case study in corporate incompetence (or malfeasance, depending on your mood), it is a really bad development for tech in general.
In other words, failed calls and glitchy apps are more than just annoying–they’re holding back a key spark of future innovation for computing.
As long as the shareholders take precedent over the consumer and monthly costs can be more than it takes to feed two adults for a couple of weeks the idea of a mobile computing future for all is nothing more than a pipe dream. An expensive (broadband) pipe dream.