Four Unconventional Political Outcomes Of 2016

2016 was full of political surprises. It was also the year that pollsters got wrong. From the British rejecting the European Union to America electing a man few had expected to prevail, it was the year of the unexpected and the unconventional. It was also the year that the idea of free markets, inclusiveness, and open borders was upended by a wave of nationalism and protectionism.

BREXIT outcome

When the then UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, announced a referendum to decide the fate of the United Kingdom in Europe, he was confident the pro-EU voices would prevail. At the time it was seen as a way to quieten the voices of those who were anti-EU especially the UKIP party which was fast gaining popularity.

Many, and not just in Cameron’s Conservative Party, were confident the Stay campaign would win. And even though polls showed the outcome would be close, pollsters consistently pointed to a win for the Stay campaign.

But in a shocking turn of events, the Leave campaign ended up winning the referendum. The BREXIT outcome was achieved by stoking anti-immigration feelings and the exaggerating the benefits of leaving the EU while downplaying the downside of such a move.

However, implementing the BREXIT outcome has proved to be a tricky and complicated process and it will take months and years for the UK to completely divorce itself from the EU. A High Court also added a twist to the saga by ruling that Members of Parliament would have to vote in favor prior to the government triggering Article 50, which would start the process of leaving the EU. The Supreme Court is yet to decide on an appeal the government has filed.

Trump beating Hillary

In a lot of ways, Trump beating Hillary had a lot of similarities to the BREXIT outcome. For one, both were consistently viewed as having a low probability of actually happening. Secondly, the pollsters were wrong on both with most having predictions that were proved to be on the contrary. And thirdly, Trump beat Hillary by running on wild and sometimes false promises just like in the case of Leave campaign that delivered the BREXIT outcome.

To the billionaire’s credit, though, he identified the disaffection among the working classes and the rural poor and actively courted it which resulted in Trump beating Hillary. The former reality television star also ran an unconventional campaign that went against all known political norms. Good fortune also seemed to be on his side as the real estate tycoon turned out to be immune to any attacks leveled against him, a fact he was well aware of.

“I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” U.S. President-elect Trump was quoted as saying at a rally during the campaigns.

Colombia peace

After a long-running conflict between the government and FARC rebels, the president of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, and the leader of the rebels signed a peace deal following years of negotiations. Before effecting the peace agreement, Colombians had to approve in a referendum. Due to the immense loss of lives the conflict had caused, it was expected that the referendum to ratify the peace deal would receive a yes vote from most Colombians. Even the polls suggested that the ‘Yes’ side would win comfortably in the Colombia peace referendum.

It was not to be as the ‘No’ side led by a former president triumphed. Many in the ‘No’ camp felt that by ratifying the Colombia peace deal, the rebels who had caused so much pain and anguish would be getting away with murder when they should have been made to answer for their actions.

Despite the setback in the Colombia peace deal, President Manuel Santos has vowed to “continue the search for peace until the last moment of my mandate because that’s the way to leave a better country to our children.”

Brazil parliamentary coup

Having succeeded a popular president and being a member of a party that had received credit for getting millions of Brazilians out of poverty, Dilma Rousseff looked set to complete her second term as the president of the largest country in South America. However, allegations that she had broken fiscal laws by transferring funds from one government program to another soon surfaced. She brushed off the accusations saying what she had done had been a common practice with the presidents before her.

Rousseff pinned the blame on her planned ouster on a former House Speaker, Eduardo Cunha. As a major driving force in the Brazil parliamentary coup, she claimed he wanted her out so that he could take her place without going through an election. The Brazil parliamentary coup succeeded and she was impeached with her vice president taking over in an acting capacity. And in an ironic twist of fate, Cunha had to resign over allegations of corruption.

[Featured Image by Mario Tama/Getty Images]