A group of “elites” is trying to replace “real” Americans. That’s what the Great Replacement conspiracy theory says, and it has taken hold in the United States. The widely believed theory has resulted in political rallies and police action, too.
As hate crimes continue to spike across the U.S., experts say that this theory is turning a population’s anxiety into violence.
In August 2025, the FBI recorded 11,679 hate crime incidents for 2024, which is the second-highest since tracking began in 1991. According to the Department of Justice, anti-Jewish, anti-Black, and anti-LGBTQ+ crimes are the biggest factors in the data. Then came antisemitic incidents that hit record highs. In some regions, 95% of reported anti-transgender hate crimes were violent as well.
Researchers say this surge has a common thread: the Great Replacement theory.
This is absolutely insane. The Great Replacement Theory is real. pic.twitter.com/vY4ER1hZrg
— Dr. Simon Goddek (@goddek) January 17, 2026
The theory claims that political and cultural elites are increasing the number of immigrants and minorities to “replace” white, Christian Americans. Its implications are racial, religious, and try to exclude a large number of immigrants who make up the U.S. population. Supporters may say they are concerned about borders or elections, but it feels like a remix of old-school nativism.
The concept isn’t new, though. Variations of replacement panic have affected anti-immigrant movements from the late 19th century, when upper-class Americans warned that Catholic and Jewish immigrants would weaken “Anglo-Saxon” culture.
Those fears justified restrictive immigration laws in the 1920s.
That fear has now become a lot more mainstream. Polls from recent years show that roughly one-third of American adults believe that U.S. natives are being replaced for some kind of gain. Many Republican voters believe in some version of the theory, which climbs much higher. Media matters too, as viewers of conservative outlets are more likely to endorse the theory than those who watch liberal networks.
Widely circulated Census projections once suggested white, non-Hispanic Americans would become less than half the population by the early 2040s. Many demographers later considered those projections misleading as they ignored how multiracial Americans identify, but the data stuck. And with that anxiety came violence again.
The White Population %
1950 25 %
1970 20 %
1990 15 %
2010 11 %
2025 8 %
Projected numbers
2050 5.5 %
2070 4.2 %
2090 3.0 %
2100 2.5 %
— Taya (@travelingflying) January 1, 2026
The most devastating proof lies in mass-casualty attacks like the 2018 Pittsburgh synagogue shooting, the 2019 El Paso Walmart massacre, and the 2022 Buffalo supermarket attack. In each of those cases, perpetrators feared replacement.
Research published in 2024 found that people who endorse the Great Replacement theory are more likely to hold authoritarian views and be antisocial. These people can also be hostile toward immigrants, minorities, and women.
Then again, variations of replacement language still keep surfacing in campaign ads and TV segments.
